UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo Preview & Best Bets

A bantamweight championship bout headlines UFC 288 as former champion Henry Cejudo returns to challenge the current champion, Aljamain Sterling.

• Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Prudential Center – Newark, New Jersey | TV: PPV

No. 4 ranked women’s bantamweight and former UFC champion Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade takes on No. 6 Yan “Fury” Xiaonan. Andrade returns to the cage after a February loss to Erin Blanchfield, a fight she took on short notice. However, she had won her previous three contests before the Blanchfield bout. Yan is coming off a majority decision over Mackenzie Dern but had lost the two previous.

Yan is four inches taller and will have a one-inch reach advantage. Andrade is a more aggressive striker and will have slightly more power, averaging 0.2 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. Volume will be the name of the game, with Andrade landing 6.84 significant strikes per minute and Yan averaging 5.45. Although, Bate Estaca absorbs 1.81 more per minute. Andrade should also control the takedown aspect of the fight, averaging 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes to Yan’s 0.87. Yan showed good submission defense against Dern, so expect the grappling to primarily determine points and control.

Andrade to win by a decision is the safest bet at -200, but there’s a good chance she overwhelms Yan in this fight. Take Andrade by KO/TKO at +250 to find value in this bout.

No. 4 Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad faces No. 5 Gilbert “Durinho” Burns, and if there is any justice in mixed martial arts, the winner should get the next shot at the welterweight title. Muhammad hasn’t lost a fight since 2019, rebounding to defeat Curtis Millender, Takashi Sato, Lyman Good, Dhiego Lima, Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, and Sean Brady, with a no-contest against current champion Leon Edwards mixed in. Burns has been fighting the whos-who of the division. Since 2018, he’s beaten Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Mike Davis, Alexey Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley, Stephen Thompson, Neil Magny, and Jorge Masvidal, while only losing to Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev.

Muhammad is one inch taller and will have a one-inch reach advantage. Both fighters pick up knockout wins at a similar rate at 24 and 29 percent, but Burns also finds 43 percent of his wins by submission. Durinho has more one-punch power, averaging 0.26 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Meanwhile, Muhammad lands 4.47 significant strikes per minute to Burns’s 3.38 but absorbs 0.55 more. They have similar takedown rates at 2.19 and 2.16 per 15 minutes, but Muhammad has a much better defense rate at 92 percent to Burns’s 47. Durinho is the better submission grappler, averaging 0.59 submissions per 15 minutes and also being a world-class Brazilian Jiu-jitsu competitor.

This is a tough fight to predict, but Burns should have a slight edge. Grab Durinho at -132 to win.

• Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
• Odds to Win: Sterling -106 | Cejudo -120
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +260 | Submission +320 | Decision -145
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -134 | No +106

UFC Bantamweight Champion Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling welcomes former two-division champion Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo back to the Octagon. Sterling is riding an eight-fight win streak, beating Brett Johns, Cody Stamann, Jimmie Rivera, Pedro Munhoz, Cory Sandhagen, Petr Yan (two times), and T.J. Dillashaw. Cejudo is the former UFC Flyweight Champion and UFC Bantamweight Champion, who last fought three years ago, ending on a five-fight win streak.

Sterling will have a three-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage. Cejudo will have a slight power advantage, averaging 0.5 knockdowns per 15 minutes to the champ’s zero. Sterling lands 0.78 more significant strikes per minute than Cejudo and absorbs 0.59 fewer. Cejudo will have the takedown advantage, being a former gold medal Olympic wrestler and owning a 93 percent takedown defense rate.

The lighter weight classes are unforgiving to aging fighters, especially those coming off long layoffs. At 36 years old, a Cejudo win doesn’t look promising against the top of the division. Sterling is a slight underdog at -106, which holds value. And if you want to push it further, Sterling to win by decision pays at +250.

• Andrade by KO/TKO (+250)
• Burns to win (-132)
• Sterling to win (-106)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook