It’s seemingly impossible to win consecutive Stanley Cups in today’s NHL. Things have to go just right to make it through an 82-game season and four rounds of playoff hockey to walk away victorious. It doesn’t absolve the Colorado Avalanche from this season’s disappointment, but it does offer a glass-half-full approach to what comes next for the once-removed Stanley Cup Champions.
The Avs were bounced in the first round of the postseason, dropping Game 7 to the Seattle Kraken and setting the stage for an offseason of change.
Colorado has some holes to fill and questions to answer if they hope to live up to the billing as Stanley Cup favorites.
Add a Top 6 Forward
This may seem counterintuitive for a team like the Avs, but they must upgrade their top six forwards. Colorado finished last year with the 15th-most scoring chances and 21st-most high-danger opportunities, highlighting a deterioration of their offensive metrics. Granted, injuries factored into their diminished analytics, but the Avalanche desperately need complementary forwards.
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Without question, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen were the table setters on offense. For the third time in as many years, the duo led the team in scoring, totaling 216 points, with both players breaking the century mark. Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen are the only other forwards to record more than 39 points under contract for next year, creating a need to replenish the Avs’ coffers.
Ideally, the team will re-sign J.T. Compher, but there’s no guarantee he will replicate 2022-23’s career-best metrics. Compher set a new benchmark at 52 points, nearly 20 points above his previous high of 33. Although he remains a competent goal scorer, last year’s stats were the outlier in his six-year career.
Colorado could skate anybody next to MacKinnon or Rantanen and get production. But they could fail to live up to these lofty expectations unless they find a true top-six forward from this year’s free agent class.
Rebuild the Bottom 6 Forwards
Finding a skater to plug into their top two lines is much less daunting than the next task on the list. The Avs have just six forwards inked for next season, necessitating a full-fledged rebuild of the third and fourth lines.
Surely, restricted free agents Alex Newhook and Denis Malgin will be back in the fold next season. However, at least a few of the remaining six unrestricted free agents will need to find homes elsewhere. Among those are Darren Helm and Andrew Cogliano, who are unlikely to return. Helm turns 37 next season and appeared in only 11 games in 2022-23. Worse, Cogliano fractured his neck in this year’s playoffs, jeopardizing his career. Lars Eller and Evan Rodrigues may return but might be unwilling to sign for what the Avalanche could offer to remain cap compliant.
Factoring in last year’s departures of Nazem Kadri and Alex Burakovsky, the Avs forwards corps will look radically different than their Stanley Cup-winning team. Finding suitable replacements, particularly among the bottom six, is crucial for ongoing success.
Solidify Goaltending
Nothing against Alexandar Georgiev, but the Avs might want to insulate their goaltender ahead of next season.
Georgiev responded well to his first season as a starter. The Bulgarian netminder played in 60 games for the Avalanche, setting career-highs in saves (1,748), wins (40), and goals-against average (2.53). Still, Georgiev was prone to bouts of inconsistency and could potentially regress following a banner campaign.
Last year, Colorado struggled with limiting high-danger chances, and it can’t expect Georgiev to duplicate his career-best metrics year-over-year. In 2022-23, the Avs’ goalie stopped 90.3% of high-danger chances against, up from his previous high of 85.1%.
Pavel Francouz has been an adequate replacement but could be asked to bite off a bigger piece than he can chew. If he falters, there’s no one waiting in the wings, as ECHL option Trent Miner is the only other tendy signed for next year.
It’s possible the Avalanche excel without addressing goaltending. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to head into next season without a more secure contingency plan in place. Colorado has titles to win, and they’ll need to solidify the blue paint to get there.
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