As the NBA Finals approach, odds are strongly favoring the Denver Nuggets. This is no surprise, given their impressive home record and the Miami Heat’s struggle to secure a win in Denver since 2016. But the question remains: are we underestimating the Heat?
Undeniably, the Nuggets, priced at -460 to win the series, have shown their strength throughout the playoffs. They remain undefeated at home, reinforcing their reputation as a formidable force in the Mile High City. Their dominant performance this season makes them the favorites to claim the Larry O’Brien trophy for the first time in the franchise’s 47-year history.
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However, the betting markets have shown a trend of overvaluing the favorites this postseason, as seen in the cases of the Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, and, most recently, the Boston Celtics, among others. All were upset. This overvaluation of favorites is crucial to consider.
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Miami, the underdog in each of their three series wins, have proven their resilience in the face of adversity. Their place in the finals is not a fluke but the result of their consistent performances. Despite the popular sentiment leaning towards a swift Denver victory, history has shown us that it’s unwise to discount Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler & Company.
It is worth considering a contrarian bet on Miami at +350 in a market leaning toward a Denver win. The Heat, who’ve shown they’re not a team to be easily dismissed, could indeed surprise us all.
The Nuggets are rightfully the favorites, but remember, the Heat have shown time and time again that they thrive under pressure. Prepare for an NBA Finals series that might not be as predictable as it seems.
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