Last week we broke down some of the least profitable MLB pitchers. This week, we address three pitchers making you the most money this season.
To no surprise, they are backed by either elite offenses or pitching staffs — or both.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays +10 units (If your unit size is $10 and you bet on every McClanahan start, you would be up $100)
Not only does he have a league-best 2.12 ERA, a fastball velocity in the top 10% of baseball and a chase rate just as good, but McClanahan is also backed by a top-five offense. There’s no surprise he tops the leaderboard here. Tampa started off on a historical run and still has a dominant lead in the standings. However, McClanahan’s advanced stats do show some negative regression, so keep that in mind when he faces tougher lineups. Also, he is not getting as much bullpen support as other elite starting pitchers, since the Rays’ bullpen actually sits in the bottom half of the league. McClanahan is often priced as a heavy favorite on the moneyline, so you must remember that the heavier the price, the more risk for a smaller payout.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves +8.3 units
With a strikeout rate in the top 1% and an expected batting average in the top 10% of MLB, facing Strider is tough for any lineup. The Braves ace’s ERA sits at 4.12 but his xERA (expected ERA) is 3.25, indicating positive regression is expected. In fact, the majority of his expected stats are among the best in the league. All that means is the 24-year-old could start seeing even better results than he is right now. With run support from a top-five lineup, Strider is likely to continue making you money as the season goes on.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees +6.4 units
Cole has cooled off a bit and his stats show that more negative regression is to come with an xERA more than a run higher (4.03) than his actual ERA (2.75). On top of that, New York’s offense has been hit or miss — literally. The Yankees currently rank in the bottom 10 of the league in batting average (.230) as well as around the middle of the pack in runs, and OPS. However, we have seen this lineup get hot before and we are likely to see that again a few times this season, especially with a healthy Aaron Judge. The pitching staff has been consistent in carrying its weight, at least. Cole is backed by the best bullpen in baseball, a unit that carries MLB’s only sub-3.00 ERA (2.96). I’d take it game-to-game when it comes to betting Cole.
