UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs. Albazi Preview & Best Bets

A top-ten flyweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 74 as No. 3 Kai Kara-France faces No. 7 Amir Albazi.

• Date: Saturday, June 3, 2023 | Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+

No. 11 flyweight Tim Elliott enters the cage opposite Victor Altamirano. Elliott enters off a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has won three of his past four bouts. Altamirano is riding a two-fight win streak, beating Daniel da Silva and Vinicius Salvador.

Altamirano will enter an inch taller and with a four-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter has much power, Elliott only gaining three percent of his wins from KO/TKO and Altamirano 18 percent. Altamirano is a very active striker, landing an average of 6.15 significant strikes per minute to Elliott’s 3.58. However, El Magnifico absorbs 1.79 more per minute. Elliott averages 1.26 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Altamirano has a 74 percent takedown defense rate.

Elliott is coming off a year layoff after stressful personal circumstances (infidelity and divorce), so it’s tough to gauge his mental state for this fight. It feels like a spot for a possible upset, so take Altamirano at +152.

Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres is looking to string together a couple of wins by beating Daniel “The Pit” Pineda. Caceres is coming off a TKO of Julian Erosa, winning six of his last seven bouts. Meanwhile, Pineda’s previous six fights include three no-contests (two for banned substances and one for an accidental eye poke). Outside of no-contests, Pineda has two wins and one loss over those six fights.

Caceres will enter three inches taller and with a 4.5-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter packs significant power but can knock out their opponents. Caceres land 0.84 more significant strikes per minute and absorb 0.11 fewer. Pineda will have the edge on the ground, averaging 0.9 more takedowns per 15 minutes and an impressive 19 career submissions.

At 37, Pineda is athletically declining, and Caceres is on a roll. There’s an outside chance this fight ends in a finish, but the safer bet is Caceres outright at -188.

• Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi
  
• Odds to Win: France -112 | Hill +142
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +220 | Submission +220 | Decision +100
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +108 | No -134

Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France re-enters the Octagon a year shy of dropping a title fight to Brandon Moreno. Kara-France’s return opponent, Amir “The Prince” Albazi, enters riding a five-fight win streak. Over his last five bouts, Albazi has three submissions (Ryan Curtis, Malcolm Gordon, Francisco Figueiredo) and one knockout (Alessandro Costa).

Albazi is one inch taller, but Kara-France will have a one-inch reach advantage. Both fighters have knockout power on the feet, but Albazi will have an edge in grappling. Kara-France lands an average of 4.7 significant strikes per minute to Albazi’s 3.54 but absorbs 1.1 more. Albazi averages 1.96 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Kara-France has an 87 percent takedown defense rate.

This fight is a pick ’em at -112 for Kara-France and -108 for Albazi. Kara-France has reached the top of the mountain and fallen short, while Albazi is riding a wave of momentum. Catch the wave and take Albazi to win.

• Altamirano to win (+152)
• Caceres to win (-188)
• Albazi to win (-108)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook