MLB Home Run Derby: Finding Outright Value


Jul 10, 2023

The upcoming MLB Home Run Derby has some intriguing matchups and betting odds to consider.

Favorites such as Pete Alonso, Julio Rodriguez, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have caught the attention of many bettors.

If we focus on the favorites Guerrero and Alonso, it’s clear that they have a strong chance of performing well in the competition. Without considering the price, Alonso has the best chance to win. However, he’ll need to put in some exceptional efforts to make it to the final. From a betting perspective, considering the underdogs might be a viable approach.

For instance, taking a closer look at Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts, there is a legitimate chance that at least one of them, if not both, could secure a victory. Rodriguez, with his impressive power, and Betts, known for his smooth swing and 26 home runs, should not be underestimated. If you’re eyeing Guerrero, he possesses formidable power, giving him an advantage in that aspect. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t be a bad strategy to back both underdogs on that side of the bracket.

The first-round matchup between Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena has Garcia favored at -144. The tight price with Garcia and Arozarena suggests a competitive matchup and a spot for a potential upset.

Looking to the outright market, Alonso remains a solid bet as the best home run hitter with a +320 price point. However, the competition is tough, and other options are worth considering. Surprisingly, Luis Robert isn’t the favorite, which makes his +400 odds intriguing. There seem to be potential pitfalls on the opposite side of the bracket. Therefore, grabbing a second piece of the left side and getting involved with players like Garcia or Arozarena could be tempting. Garcia, batting in the middle of the lineup for the Texas Rangers, could be a significant threat if he gets hot, and at +650 presents an enticing opportunity.

Furthermore, if we consider the third level, featuring players like Betts and Adley Rutschman, it’s worth noting that they have legitimate chances at +1800 and +2000, respectively. However, advancing from that bracket would be considerably more complicated. This brings us back to the idea of exploring the underdogs’ potential. Would it be surprising if Garcia or Arozarena reached the final? Perhaps not, especially given their appealing price points.

The outright market for the MLB Home Run Derby offers a range of intriguing options. While Alonso remains a strong contender, it’s worth considering the underdogs, such as Garcia and  Arozarena, who can make a significant impact. With enticing odds and legitimate skills, these players shouldn’t be overlooked. It’s an exciting event with plenty of opportunities for favorites and underdogs to shine.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Thumbnail photo via David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Picked For You