UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva Preview & Best Bets

A women’s bantamweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 77 as No. 3 Holly Holm takes on No. 10 Mayra Bueno Silva.

• Date: Saturday, July 15, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+

Nazim Sadykhov takes on Terrance “T Wrecks” McKinney. Sadykhov is riding a seven-fight win streak but has only one previous UFC fight, a TKO Doctor Stoppage of Evan Elder. Meanwhile, McKinney is coming off a knockout loss to Ismael Bonfim but is 3-2 in the UFC.

Both combatants are five-foot-ten, but McKinney has a 4.5-inch reach advantage. McKinney packs significantly more power than Sadykhov, averaging only three minutes and 40 seconds of fight time, with a 1.37 knockdown average per 15 minutes. Sadykhov lands an average of 5.17 significant strikes per minute to McKinney’s 3.78. However, the Azerbaijani also absorbs 1.51 more significant strikes per minute. McKinney will have the wrestling advantage, averaging a whopping 2.75 more takedowns per minute. Both fighters have good takedown defense rates at 80 and 83 percent.

McKinney doesn’t spend much time in the cage because he’s more of an all-or-nothing fighter. At +166, McKinney has a decent shot of pulling off an upset, and his odds of winning by KO/TKO aren’t bad either at +270.

No. 13 ranked women’s featherweight Norma “The Immortal” Dumont faces No. 15 Chelsea Chandler. Dumont enters the cage on a two-fight win streak, beating Karol Rosa and Danyelle Wolf. Chandler is riding a five-fight win streak but has only one UFC victory, beating Julija Stoliarenko.

Chandler is one inch taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. She also lands a staggering 8.94 significant strikes per minute, compared to Dumont’s 3.45. Still, Chandler absorbs 0.75 more per minute. Dumont will have the wrestling edge, averaging 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes to Chandler’s zero.

This fight is destined for a decision priced at -215. However, with Chandler‘s striking volume, it makes more sense to lean toward her to win by decision at +300.

• Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
• Odds to Win: Holm -176 | Bueno Silva +142
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +350 | Submission +320 | Decision -180
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -172 | No +132

Former UFC Bantamweight Champion Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm faces Mayra “Sheetara” Bueno Silva. The ageless wonder, Holm, has won three of her last four fights, beating Raquel Pennington, Irene Aldana, and Yana Santos (losing to Ketlen Vieira). Bueno Silva is on a three-fight win streak, beating Wu Yanan, Stephanie Egger, and Lina Lansberg.

Holm is two inches taller and will have a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Holm will have an insignificant power edge but has a massive experience advantage. Bueno Silva lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute to Holm’s 3.17 but absorbs 1.94 more. Despite Holm being a former boxing champion, she’ll have the wrestling advantage, averaging 0.54 more takedowns per minute. Bueno Silva’s only advantage will be a superior submission game, but Holm has a 78 percent takedown defense rate and will be the physically stronger fighter.

At 41 years old, Holm is past her athletic prime, but she is still stronger than most women she competes against and possesses superior technical skills. Holm is the favorite at -176, but her odds to win by decision are more attractive at +105.

• McKinney to win (+166)
• Chandler by decision (+300)
• Holm to win by decision (+105)

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