It’s Week 0, and we’re nine days from the Big Ten season kicking off. Arguably the best division in college football features three potential playoff teams at the top, with four programs happy to say goodbye to the conference’s East-West alignment.
Here’s how I expected the B1G East teams to finish with my OVER/UNDER picks for each program.
For more detailed previews, click on the links below.
Big Ten East Previews: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers
Big Ten West Previews: Iowa | Minnesota | Wisconsin | National Previews: Georgia | Notre Dame | USC
1. Michigan WolverinesComing off impressive seasons with 11 and 12 regular-season wins in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Michigan is poised to have a strong year under Jim Harbaugh. The Wolverines are favorites in every game this season, with small lines at Penn State (-2.5 per the Westgate Superbook) and against Ohio State (-2.5).
With their head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback all returning, it’s playoffs or bust for Michigan. This team is STACKED at every position. Despite being less optimistic than last season when the number was 9.5, I’d be surprised to see them with more than one loss entering December.
Michigan Preseason PickB1GGEST Bet – OVER 10.5 (-130 @ DraftKings Best Price)
2. Ohio State BuckeyesIf pressed, I’d lean toward the UNDER with OSU. With a first-year starting quarterback (still unnamed), it’s difficult to expect an 11-0 run going into The Game (road), particularly with tough matchups against Notre Dame (road), Penn State, and Wisconsin (road).
To bet on the OVER, I’d have to bank on the Buckeyes defeating Michigan, which I’m not confident about. Especially with significant question marks at offensive tackle, an unknown QB, and a defense that still needs to prove it can hang with a top offense. I respect their talent (elite skill players) and Ryan Day’s impressive coaching record, so I’m hesitant to go against them.
Ohio State Preseason PickNO BET – Lean: UNDER 10.5 (-105 PointsBet)
3. Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State won ten regular-season wins in 2022 (tied for the most under James Franklin), and many expect them to be even better. In Manny Diaz’s second year, PSU might have the best defense in the country (although potentially a little soft on the interior D-line). But can Franklin beat a top-five Michigan or a top-five Ohio State?
The good news is they don’t need to for the OVER to hit. A 12.5-point favorite over Iowa, they should be at least two-touchdown favorites in most of their games, so hitting ten wins should be achievable. Michigan is only a slight 2.5-point favorite in Happy Valley. Arguably, 11 wins (playoffs?!?) might be more likely than nine, but we only need ten for the OVER.
Penn State Preseason PickB1GGEST Bet – OVER 9.5 (-140 @FanDual)
4. Maryland TerrapinsIt’s been an upward trend for the Terps under head coach Mike Locksley. Maryland’s path to eight regular-season wins involves winning at least two of their three toss-up games against Michigan State (road), Illinois, and Nebraska (road). However, last year’s team had some concerning performances, including close calls against Indiana and Northwestern.
They will move the ball with Taulia Tagovailoa and a solid group of skilled players, but the Terps face significant losses on both lines of scrimmage. I liked the OVER when it was seven, but at 7.5, I don’t trust Maryland to avoid upsets.
Maryland Preseason PickNO BET – Lean: OVER 7.5 (+110 DraftKings)
5. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State will have more depth in 2023 but faces significant questions, particularly at quarterback and receiver, after Payton Thorne (named started at Auburn) and Keon Coleman (their best player) decided to transfer following the spring. Despite an expected improvement, they must navigate a demanding schedule (five ranked teams) and replace critical players.
Their positive record in close games (plus two) last season could have easily swung the other way. I’m taking the UNDER here, with the Spartans likely needing to win four of five against Maryland, Minnesota (road), Nebraska, Indiana (road), and Rutgers (road) to reach six wins. I’d be singing a different tune if MSU played Minny, RU, and IU at home instead of Michigan, PSU, and Washington.
Michigan State Preseason PickB1GGER Bet – UNDER 5.5 (-155 @ DraftKings)
6. Indiana HoosiersThe Hoosiers could be much improved at quarterback and along the offensive line. If so, my pick will be wrong. But they’re relying on many transfers, leaving too many question marks to believe in a big turnaround.
Indiana should beat Akron and Indiana State but likely lose to Louisville, Maryland, Wisconsin, and the Big 3. That leaves four games against Rutgers, Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois. Winning two of these is possible, but so is losing all four. I’d lean OVER if the number were 3.5. If forced to choose, I’d go UNDER 4.0 due to the likelihood of three wins compared to five, limiting the liability.
Indiana Preseason PickNO BET – Lean: UNDER 4 (-160 @ Caesars)
7. Rutgers Scarlet KnightsRutgers is right there with Indiana in that the QB should improve (can it be worse?), and there are some reasons for optimism (defense is solid), but they need too many fresh faces to pop. I see six highly-likely losses and just one sure win this season.
The remaining five games include Northwestern, where RU is only favored by 7 points in Week 1. I don’t see significant improvement this year with an offense that ranked poorly last season. They won four games in 2022, and the 2023 schedule looks more challenging. At 3.5, I’d lean OVER, but at 4.5, I prefer the UNDER, as winning five games is nearly impossible, even with improvements.
Rutgers Preseason PickB1G Bet – UNDER 4.5 (-125 @ DraftKings)
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