The Slate: Caleb Williams Devil You Know In College Football Week 0

Welcome to The Slate, your home for college football picks at NESN.com. Here you can find our best bets to follow across each time slot on (mostly) Saturdays in the fall. Let’s get things started with Week 0.

You might be familiar with the old saying, “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t,” a reference to the idea it’s often better to deal with something you are familiar with, even if it’s not ideal, than take a risk with the unknown.

So, what does that have to do with college football?

Well, it’s Week 0, which means our long national nightmare is over and the sport we all know and love is back. It also means those of us who like to place a wager or two are tasked with making sense of some absurdly large point spreads. That is the story of this week, with Notre Dame and USC entering their respective matchups as huge favorites.

Here’s why we like one of those teams, and hate the other, with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Notre Dame (-21) vs. Navy
(2:30 p.m. ET on NBC)

There are always high expectations at Notre Dame (No. 13 in the AP Poll), but this year feels like a make-or-break campaign for head coach Marcus Freeman. Yes, we know it’s only his second year at the helm, but dropping from No. 5 to No. 18 in the polls and failing to win 10 games, which is what they did in 2022, ain’t gonna get it done in South Bend. (The expectations at Notre Dame are outlandish and that should be enough, but that’s a story for a different day.)

The Fighting Irish did land one of the best transfer quarterbacks in the country, Sam Hartman, so it would make sense that they’d try to put on a show in Week 0 to take some heat off. It really won’t be up to them, however.

This matchup will be played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, which is the same place that hosted an absolute slog between Nebraska and Northwestern to open last season. That means things could get messy, which will favor Navy, who returns nearly all of its offensive starters while Notre Dame has an entirely new front seven on defense — and yes, the Midshipmen still run the triple-option. Navy was awful last season, but still only lost to Notre Dame by one point.

It’s too early in the season to believe in the Irish, even if they are playing in Ireland.

The Pick: Navy +21

New Mexico State (-7.5) vs. UMass
(7 p.m. ET on ESPN)

This one is for bettors outside of Massachusetts, as in-state college betting isn’t legal in the commonwealth. We’re sure you’re not too upset about not being able to watch this game, though.

UMass will enter 2023 trying to be … well, not the worst team in college football, while New Mexico State could be argued as the worst team to have won a bowl game in 2022. The Minutemen had the worst offense in the country (no, literally) last season, but are expected to have a much-improved defense under legendary defensive mind Don Brown. The Aggies are only returning 13 total starters, while their best player very well may be the punter.

This game isn’t going to be pretty, and rooting for an Under stinks, but it’s the smart play.

The Pick: Under 44.5

USC (-30.5) vs. San Jose State
(8 p.m. ET on Pac-12 Network)

If Notre Dame is the devil you don’t know, Caleb Williams is the one you do.

USC (No. 6) enters this season with a real shot at making it to the College Football Playoff, as Williams is undoubtedly the best quarterback in the country. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner knows how to put points on the board, with the Trojans offense averaging more than 41 points per game. The defense leaves a bit to be desired, though, as they allowed nearly 30 points per game last season.

There is no question that San Jose State is going to get trounced here, but the 30.5 number might be too much given their ability to score points with veteran quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. In the last full season of Pac-12 football, we’re going to root for points, the way the college football gods intended.

The Pick: Over 66.5