Is Geno Smith For Real? Why Seahawks Could Be Sneaky Breakout
Seattle did well to build around Smith this offseason
The Seattle Seahawks surprisingly made the playoffs last season behind a resurgent Geno Smith, and the veteran aims to prove that wasn't a fluke.
NFL fans had written the 11th-year quarterback off, but in his illustrious words, he "didn't write back." Among qualified passers, Smith finished first in competition percentage, eighth in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. He also was seventh in combined expected points added and completion percentage over expected. To put it simply, Smith was insanely efficient.
However, Seattle finished the season 3-4 after its Week 11 bye and lost handily to its NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers in the wild-card round. The results might have fans thinking what Smith did was a fluke, but there's reason to believe the Seahawks still could reach a higher ceiling.
Seattle was fifth in neutral pass rate last season. This was a sharp contrast to years prior where it traditionally is in the bottom half of neutral pass rate. And the Seahawks appear to be doubling down on being a pass-first offense.
The Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and when he recovers from his wrist injury, they likely will run more 11-personnel looks, which they couldn't do last season since they lacked a quality third receiver. In the 2021 college football season, Smith-Njigba outproduced Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, so this is a pass-catcher with serious talent.
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Seattle also drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round to create a one-two punch with Kenneth Walker III in the backfield. The duo should run in front of what should be an improved offensive line. The defense simply needs to be average, and this is a team that can make some noise.
Now, this was a playoff team last season, so it might not be "sneaky," per se. Smith is 30-1 to win MVP on FanDuel, and the Seahawks are 2-1 to win the division. But there are other intriguing ways to bet on Seattle.
Instead of betting Smith to win MVP, why not take D.K. Metcalf at 80-1 on FanDuel to win Offensive Player of the Year? The AP award has been won by a wide receiver three out of the past four seasons, and Smith-Njigba's inclusion in the offense should open up more opportunities for Metcalf.
And speaking of Smith-Njigba, he's 21-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year on FanDuel. This is great value, especially since he's +650 at Caesers to win the award. He reportedly is expected to miss at least a month, but the rookie class might not pop off, which would give Smith-Njigba an opportunity to win the award.
The Seahawks are 35-1 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel, but if you don't want to wait that long, you could also take them to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC at 16-1 on BetMGM. There's a tough stretch from Week 12 to Week 15 where they will play the 49ers twice, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. But if they can make it through that, they have a chance to be one of the top teams in the conference.
It's easy to forget about the Seahawks as a potential contender, but they have the pieces to prove that last season wasn't a fluke for Smith and have an opportunity to make some noise in the national conversation.
