Michigan State Spartans Preview, Predictions & Win Total Pick
It’s been a rollercoaster three years in East Lansing under Mel Tucker. After a throw-away 2-5 COVID season, the Spartans overachieved their way to 11 wins in 2021 before plummeting back to earth with a 5-7 record last year, worse than the record indicates. Which season was real? Which was a mirage? Maybe neither or both, and MSU, will prove to be something in between.Michigan State Spartans Preview
2022 Record: 5-7 (3-6); Big Ten Finish: 5th in B1G East
A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | PFF: No. 44 | SP+: No. 42
Head Coach: Mel Tucker: 18-14 (12-13) | 4th Season | Overall: 23-21
Offensive Coordinator: Jay Johnson (4th season)
Co-Defensive Coordinator: Scott Hazelton (4th season)
Michigan State Spartans Odds (FanDuel)National Championship Odds: +30000 | CFB Playoff Odds: NA
B1G Championship Odds: +11000 | B1G East Odds: +9500
Win 6+ Games: +155 | Undefeated Regular Season: +50000
Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 -148 | UNDER 5.5 -184
Big Ten Previews: Michigan
Michigan State Preview: Why You Should Be BullishThe front seven could be good. It will undoubtedly be better after a season ravished by injuries and suspension. Linebacker Jacoby Windmon might be their best overall player and is a hybrid that’s too good of a pass rusher not to use in passing situations (5.5 sacks). Cal Haladay was their leading tackler (120), including a team-best 10.5 TFLs. If Darius Snow can return healthy, it would be a massive boon to the linebacker room, while Aaron Brule is another Swiss Army Knife type who also handles edge duties. It’s not as clear up front, other than disruptive DT Simeon Barrow, but they have ten players with starting experience. There is size and depth. The most intriguing prospect is D-end Tunmise Adeleye, a former four-star who has transferred from Texas A&M.
Michigan State Preview: Why You Should Be BearishIn three words: the throw game… on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they lost quarterback Payton Thorne and receivers Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed, the first two were lost to the transfer portal following spring ball. To have Sparty fans tell it, Thorne isn’t a significant loss, but he threw 27 TD passes (8.3 YPA) while leading them to 11 wins in 2021. It’s expected that the unproven Noah Kim will take over. Reed was a second-round pick in last year’s draft, and Coleman is considered an even better pro prospect. Huge losses. Defensively, they finished last in pass defense in college football in 2021 and were 86th a year ago (127th in passing success rate) with an FBS-low two INTs. The secondary only returns one starter and is inexperienced. The defense has also given up too many explosive plays under this staff.
Breakout Player: TE Maliq Carr, JuniorThe former Purdue Boilermaker has NFL measurables at 6’5″ and 255 pounds, with impressive athleticism for a tight end. That is unsurprising, considering he was a receiver and a three-sport athlete in high school. Maliq Carr has flashed elite potential and is ready to emerge as a junior. He will take over for the departed Daniel Barker as TE1. With three of their top four catchers gone, Carr is MSU’s second-leading returning receiver (209 yards) and could be Kim’s No. 2 target in 2023.
X-Factor: The Offensive LineBeauty is in the eye of the beholder regarding their offensive line. Some see a unit that struggled to run block, while others identify a group with four returning starters that added the No. 1 junior college O-lineman, Keyshawn Blackstock. Led by fifth-year seniors left guard JD Duplain and center Nick Samac they have strength up the middle. But to develop their best O-line in years, they must play better and help their first-year starter QB with a reliable run game. Will they? The answer to that question might decide their bowl fate.
Michigan State Schedule AnalysisThe schedule is rough. Arguably the toughest in the Big Ten. In addition to playing the Big Ten East’s Big 3, MSU has road games against West foes Iowa and Minnesota, with a visit from No. 11 Washington in Week 3. These are all games they’re expected to lose or at least will be underdogs in. Of their four “toss-up” games, they get their easiest two opponents on the road, at Rutgers and Indiana (making them more losable), and their tougher opponents at home, vs. Maryland and Nebraska (making them more winnable).
Michigan State Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 WinsThe Spartans will be deeper in 2023, but will they be better? Tucker must replace their QB and top-end receiver talent, probably their top unit over the past two seasons. While they are expected to have more options this season, there’s no position without significant question marks (other than linebacker). Throw in a brutal schedule, and that MSU was a favorable +2 in close games last season (which easily could have been a three or four-win team). That’s why I’m taking the UNDER despite the expected improvement. To reach six wins (seven is the absolute ceiling), the Spartans probably must sweep their four games against Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana, and Rutgers. Maybe they do, but I’m not betting on it.
Michigan State Preseason PickUNDER 5.5 (-160 @ PointsBet Best Price)
