NFL Odds: Is Raiders’ Reliance On Ex-Patriots Sound Strategy?

Tune in to the “Ultimate Betting Show” on NESN or NESN360 on Monday at 5:30 p.m. ET for NFL training camp previews. Next up: Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas era for the Raiders has seen dwindling returns, and Josh McDaniels is turning to a familiar face for help.

Las Vegas made the postseason once in its first four years since moving from Oakland, and McDaniels’ poor run in his first season as head coach puts into question whether he has what it takes to be a head coach. He has a 17-28 record in three seasons — he was fired after 12 games in 2010.

For as much as Asante Samuel snipes at Bill Belichick for being a product of Tom Brady, that notion also could be thrown at McDaniels. But he’s banking on Jimmy Garoppolo to help get the franchise back in the direction it wants.

How much better Garoppolo is compared to Derek Carr, who was run of town last season, is up in the air, but McDaniels does have a guy who understands what he wants. And he’s not the only one.

The Raiders have a lot of former New England Patriots players on the roster, and while this might be an attempt to instill a new culture in Las Vegas, how this translates to the football field is in the eye of the beholder. There are some who are extremely pessimistic about the Raiders, but there are others who have built a case for themselves that the Raiders won’t be a disaster.

2022 in review
6-11, third in AFC West
8-9 against the spread
8-8-1 over/under

Key offseason additions
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
QB Brian Hoyer
QB Aidan O’Connell (draft)
RB Brandon Bolden
WR Jakobi Meyers
TE Austin Hooper
TE Michael Mayer (draft)
CB Marcus Peters

Key offseason losses
QB Derek Carr
TE Darren Waller
S Duron Harmon

Look ahead to 2023 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Super Bowl: +7500
Conference: +5500
Division: +1700
Win total: 6.5 (under -138)
Make playoffs: Yes +390 | No -590

2023 award contenders
MVP: Jimmy Garoppolo +10000
Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams +3000
Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby +2500
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Aidan O’Connell +5000, Michael Mayer +10000

2023 outlook
The first games of the season will be important for the Raiders to determine their future. Their bye week is in Week 13, but if things start to look bleak after their Week 6 matchup against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, that might be the opportunity to sell. Adams and Hunter Renfrow could help out contending teams, and Chandler Jones could be a solid rental with one year left on his contract.

Garoppolo’s health will be key. He’s only played more than 15 games twice in his nine-year career. There is optimism in Las Vegas around rookie O’Connell but betting on a Brock Purdy-type breakout is wishful thinking, especially with a team that has a weak offensive line.

Even if there are questions about the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, that doesn’t make the Raiders a good team. The offense has solid pieces, but if the offensive line fails to hold up and if the defense can’t stop anybody, the 2023 season might be McDaniels’ last in Las Vegas.