Penn State Nittany Lions Preview, Predictions & Win Total Pick

Penn State finished 11-2 last season, which felt a year ahead of schedule, with freshmen Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Abdul Carter all playing significant roles. That’s not to say they can just run it back, as they must replace a four-year starter at quarterback, their top three pass catchers, leading tackler and interceptor, and a second-round pick cornerback. Even if they take the next step this season, as some predict, will it be good enough to win more than ten regular season games?Penn State Nittany Lions Preview

2022 Record: 11-2 (7-2); Big Ten Finish: 3rd in B1G East

A.P. Poll: No. 7 | Coaches Poll: No. 7 | SP+: No. 8

Head Coach: James Franklin: 78-36 (49-30) | 13th Season | Overall: 102-51

Co-Offensive Coordinator: Mike Yurcich (3rd Season), Ty Howle (1st Season, 4th w/ PSU)

Co-Defensive Coordinator: Manny Diaz (2nd Season), Anthony Poindexter (3rd Season)

Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +2000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +460

B1G Championship Odds: +600 | B1G East Odds: +470

Win 10+ Games: -140 | Undefeated Regular Season: +1000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 9.5 -140 | UNDER 9.5 +114

Big Ten Previews: Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Rutgers |

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

This is a very talented group, a legit top-ten college football team, and might be the best James Franklin has produced in his tenth season. I’m incredibly high on the defense, which returns ten of their top 12 defensive linemen from last year, including athletic edge rushers Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson. Isaac led them in tackles for loss and QB hurries in 2022. All three starters at linebacker are back, led by potential All-American Abdul Carter, who could be the best defender in the conference. The secondary is anchored by Kalen King, who could be the first PSU corner to go in the first round. Lastly, we can’t forget that Manny Diaz is one of the top defensive minds in the biz, and Year 2 should be even better.

Nittany Lions Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Can Franklin win the big one? I’m not sure anyone has gotten more legs out of one win than Franklin’s over Ohio State in his third season, but that was in 2016, and he’s now 1-8 against the Buckeyes. This isn’t horseshoes or hand grenades. He’s 3-6 against Michigan, 2-6 if you take out the COVID season both programs would rather forget. Since their Rose Bowl run in 2016, Franklin has lost ten-straight games against top-ten Big Ten foes, which includes OSU six times and Michigan three times. Why are we to suddenly believe PSU will be different this season?

Penn State Pick: Breakout Player: DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Sophomore

Everyone is hyped up about the potential of Robinson, so Dani Dennis-Sutton is expected to slot into a backup role. But don’t sleep on the super sophomore leading the team in sacks as soon as this season. With three sacks in limited duty as a true freshman, Dennis-Sutton was scratching the surface of his potential. The word out of Happy Valley is that no one is putting in more time in the weight and film rooms, which is why we expect him to force his way on the field.

Nittany Lions Pick: X-Factor: QB Drew Allar, Junior

Earlier, I asked why are we to believe this season might be different. The simple answer is Drew Allar. Another five-star recruit, Allar, was ranked as the 32^nd overall prospect by the 247Sports Composite and the No. 4 QB in his class. When you see his 6”5” and 240-frame and watch this Ohio native throw the football, you can see why he was ranked so high. If he is good as the hype, the Nittany Lions could become a legit Big Ten title contender on par with Michigan and Ohio State. He raised the ceiling but also lowered the floor.

But if a big body and strong arm guaranteed anything, D.J. Uiagalelei would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, not trying to resurrect his career at Oregon State. Boom, bust, or something in between? How Allar goes, so go the 2023 Nittany Lions.

Penn State Schedule Analysis

Do you want the good news or the bad news first? The bad news is that Michigan (home but not a “white out” game) and Ohio State (road) will be top-five teams this season, so to beat either one, Franklin will need to come through with his best win in seven years.

The good news? Their other ten opponents aren’t Ohio State or Michigan. Not even close. They avoid B1G West favorite Wisconsin, and Iowa might be the only other ranked team PSU plays in 2023, with the Hawkeyes coming to Beaver Stadium. Their most challenging out-of-conference game is against an old rival, West Virginia, also at home, with the Nittany Lions a 20.5-point favorite.

Penn State Prediction: OVER/UNDER 9.5 Wins

I began this preview by asking if PSU will be good enough to better 2022’s ten regular season wins. Well, I have more good news. They don’t have to be to go OVER their number, which is why I really like their season win total. They’re a 10.5-point favorite over Iowa (the same spread they are getting at OSU) and should be at least a two-touchdown favorite over everyone else on their schedule. At the same time, Michigan is a mere 2.5-point favorite in Happy Valley. You could argue that 11 wins are more likely than nine, but we only need ten; there’s no need to.

Penn State Preseason Pick

OVER 9.5 (-140)