UFC returns to TD Garden on Saturday night, with UFC 292 marking the promotion’s first pay-per-view event in Boston since UFC 220 in 2018.
A lot has changed inside the octagon over the past five years, but a development outside the cage could spruce up the viewing experience for many casual MMA observers: Sports betting now is legal in Massachusetts.
There are various ways to bet on fights, whether you’re focused on outright winners or interested in diving a little deeper into how each bout will end. Saturday’s card is interesting, albeit complicated, and in that there are a bunch of heavy favorites.
Here are three bets to consider ahead of the action, which includes a main event for the UFC bantamweight title (Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley) and a co-main event for the UFC women’s strawweight title (Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos).
All odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Aljamain Sterling to win by submission in Rounds 2, 3 or 4 (+420)
This fight features a fascinating contrast in styles, with Sterling, the champion, an expert on the mat and O’Malley a devastating striker capable of delivering blows from all angles. O’Malley simply hasn’t proven he’s on Sterling’s level, though, and it’ll be a rough night at the office for Sugar if he can’t keep this fight upright.
Sterling is the heavy favorite, priced at -265 at FanDuel Sportsbook. And the most likely outcome, per the odds (+195), is for the champ to win by submission. Let’s assume the two feel each other out in Round 1, with O’Malley doing his best to avoid takedowns and use his range. That’ll prove more difficult as the fight wears on, with Sterling ultimately asserting his dominance on the ground against an inferior fighter who’s benefitted from facing lackluster competition to this point.
The wild card here: Sterling probably doesn’t want this to go to the judge’s scorecards, where anything can happen, as O’Malley so far has been pushed as UFC’s next golden goose.
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Zhang Weili to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 (+550)
Another intriguing contrast in styles, with Zhang a versatile fighter capable of winning on her feet or on the mat and Lemos a heavy hitter who typically leans on her overwhelming power. Zhang, the champion, is a huge -340 favorite.
There isn’t much value at that number, but that doesn’t mean you should rush to the window and bet on Lemos. Zhang will win this fight. It’s a matter of figuring out how. And Lemos isn’t accustomed to fights lasting long — this is her first five-rounder — and likely will wear down, opening the door for a Zhang stoppage, with KO/TKO being the most likely method of victory.
Chris Weidman by points (+480)
Weidman snapped his leg in half the last time he fought at UFC 261 in 2021. That he’s even fighting is a borderline miracle. Could he really beat Brad Tavares this Saturday? Oddsmakers don’t think so, with Tavares a -290 favorite.
But consider this: Tavares, 35, isn’t exactly on a heater, losing his last two fights, including a first-round TKO defeat at the hands of Bruno Silva back in April. While Weidman has been susceptible to knockouts later in his career, the questionable chin shouldn’t be much of an issue here against an opponent who lacks KO power.
Simply put, Weidman is a live ‘dog. So, you could simply take him on the moneyline at +215. But if you’re looking for a little more value, bank on this fight going the distance, with Tavares’ KO potential further limited by Weidman’s propensity for taking the action to the ground.
