Patriots-Dolphins Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 2

The New England Patriots looked impressive in their season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Miami Dolphins showed their potential against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium.

It’s tricky to try to find a meaningful takeaway from Week 1. Teams have all summer to prepare, and the best coaches tend to show why they are the cream of the crop. Mike McDaniel should be part of that conversation.

While Vic Fangio’s defense started off on the wrong foot, McDaniel showed he truly can get the best out of the Dolphins offense when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. The Patriots obviously will have to find ways to stop Tyreek Hill, but McDaniel added a unique wrinkle in how he schemes the All-Pro wide receiver open.

McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree, so motion is a big aspect of his offense. But NFL fans saw Hill go into a motion where he’s able to get a running start. This allowed him to get open easier, and the defensive back had to respect his route-running capabilities, so there was very little answer from Chargers head coach Brandon Staley. This appears to be a new trend in the NFL with the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers also utilizing this short motion with their best skill players.

“Sunday Night Football” could shape up to be an interesting chess match between McDaniel and Bill Belichick.

Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Eagles game from a betting perspective, with lines and props from FanDuel Sportsbook.

(-3) Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Total: 46.5
When: Sunday, Sept. 17 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

more betting

NFL Odds: Could Underdogs Continue Rolling In Week 2?

by Keagan Stiefel 3 Min Read

NFL Week 2 Picks: Aaron Rodgers Injury, Week 1 Overreactions Loom Large

by Ricky Doyle 8 Min Read

NFL Week 2 Opening Lines: Cowboys Jump Off Page In Jets Showdown

by Mike Cole 3 Min Read

BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Dolphins have had New England’s number in the past seven games with a 6-1 record against the spread. That also includes the AFC East with an 8-2 ATS record against division opponents. Miami also is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. However, the Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and even better with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games as an underdog of seven or fewer points. Trends also suggest a high total game with Miami going over the total in eight of their last 10 road games, and New England has gone over the total in 21 of its last 34 games on “Sunday Night Football.”

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Hunter Henry anytime touchdown (+310) — This was at +230 last week, so we’re going at it again with longer odds. Henry had a solid day against the Eagles catching five out of his six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. Miami does have a good safety pair of DeShon Elliott and Jevon Holland, but Henry has become a go-to weapon for Mac Jones, and with JuJu Smith-Schuster seemingly not at full strength, Henry should still see plenty of targets go his way.

DOLPHINS PROP TO CONSIDER
Tua Tagovailoa under 268.5 passing yards (-114) — Tagovailoa is 4-0 against New England in his career, but he’s only gone over 250 passing yards just once. Granted, that was Week 1 of last season where he had McDaniel scheming things up for him. But this is shaping up to be a stingy Patriots defense. Keion White and Christian Gonzalez already are difference makers after their first career games, and if Terron Armstead is out again, that should help New England’s pass rush disrupt Tagovailoa’s rhythm and make things difficult for Miami’s offense.

PICK: Under 46.5
There was a temptation to take the Patriots with the points. Again, finding a meaningful takeaway from Week 1 is difficult. Miami’s offense easily could fall back to earth. Despite McDaniel’s ability to scheme players open, his team’s offensive line might run into problems against the Patriots pass rush. Fangio’s defense is formidable, but New England showed it can be competent and sometimes creative on offense. However, we’re playing it safe and demanding Mac Jones show us he can win a big game, even though that narrative admittedly oversimplifies a lot of close matchups. Also, Jonathan Jones’ injury is one to monitor since he is sort of a Hill stopper for New England. Plus, the Patriots could severely be undermanned on their offensive line, which shapes up for frustrations on offense as one team hopes for a big play.