Patriots Mailbag: What Mac Jones, Offense Must Do Vs. Dolphins

Welcome back to the NESN.com Patriots mailbag. In our first installment of the 2023 season, we’re tackling questions about New England’s offensive trajectory, its rash of O-line injuries and one key defensive matchup in this Sunday’s primetime matchup against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.

@reed172
Mac and the offense took some positive steps forward, what should we look for next in their progress to know they are on the right track?
Four things:

1. Cut out the mistakes. The Patriots opened their Week 1 loss to Philadelphia with a pick-six on their opening drive — put that one on Mac Jones’ even though his high throw did hit Kendrick Bourne in the hands — and a fumble deep in their own territory one play later.

Those errors put them in an early 16-0 hole, and it’s hard to overcome that kind of deficit against any quality opponent.

Miscues cropped up later in the game, too: third-down drops by Bourne and JuJu Smith-Schuster, poor sideline awareness by rookie Kayshon Boutte and a couple of costly holding penalties. One of those flags took the Patriots out of field-goal one on a two-point conversion.

2. Don’t waste their opportunities. New England started two drives from their own 44-yard line on Sunday and two more from Philadelphia’s 47 and 41. Those possessions yielded a total of zero points, with the Patriots punting on the first two and turning it over on downs on the last two — both of which came with less than four minutes remaining and the Eagles up five.

The Patriots have a potentially elite defense, and their revamped special teams are off to a solid start, too. When those units give their offense favorable field position, it needs to capitalize.

3. Can they win a shootout? I expect the Patriots to do a much better job defensively against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins than the Los Angeles Chargers did last weekend. I don’t think this will be another 70-point barnburner (Miami won 36-34 in LA).

But if begins creeping toward that territory, can the Patriots keep up? They still have yet to win a game with Jones at quarterback when the opponent scores at least 25 points. Jones is 0-11 in such contests, including playoffs, with the Patriots also dropping another in the Brian Hoyer/Bailey Zappe Green Bay game last October.

4. Can they run the ball? They couldn’t against the Eagles, mostly due to poor blocking by their patchwork O-line. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott averaged 2.8 yards per carry on 19 attempts, and the Patriots’ second-longest rush was an 8-yard Jones scramble.

New England should be able to exploit a Miami defense that let up a league-worst 233 rushing yards in its opener, but not if they’re rolling out another collection of backups up front (more on that below).

I thought last Sunday certainly was a positive step for both Jones and Bill O’Brien’s new offense, but they still have plenty to prove here in Week 2.

@MFAMLikeMike
La’el Collins or nah?
I say go for it. Collins wasn’t great last season, and I don’t know where he’s at health-wise after tearing his ACL and MCL in the Bengals’ Christmas Eve loss at Gillette Stadium. But he has a ton of starting experience (86 starts since entering the NFL in 2015) and can play right tackle or guard.

Outside of Trent Brown, who’s currently in concussion protocol, the only tackles on the Patriots’ roster are Calvin Anderson, Vederian Lowe and Tyrone Wheatley Jr., who have started 13, zero and zero games at the NFL level. They also have fourth-round rookie Sidy Sow, who played right guard in Week 1 and, like Brown, now is dealing with a concussion.

Riley Reiff is on injured reserve for at least the first four games. Not clear when he’ll be ready to return, but he was bumped out of the starting right tackle spot even before his injury after struggling in training camp. Conor McDermott was placed on season-ending IR and now is a free agent (though he still has a locker and gear at Gillette Stadium, hinting at a possible return).

The medicals will be an important factor for the 30-year-old Collins, and with no practice reps since last December, he’d likely need a ramp-up period before he’s ready to play. But if he’s healthy, it’s worth a shot for this depleted position group.

The Patriots listed five O-linemen on their injury report this week — four preferred starters (Brown, David Andrews, Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu) and another player (Sow) who started Week 1.

@ChefdDds89
With every player on the O Line injured, why not pluck chasen Hines off of the dolphins practice squad?
Valid question. But even if the Patriots wanted to reunite with Hines, their 2022 sixth-round pick, they wouldn’t be allowed to. At least, not now.

NFL rules forbid teams from signing players off their next opponent’s practice squad within six days of the game. Since the Patriots play the Dolphins this Sunday, they can’t sign Hines or anyone else from Miami’s P-squad, which also includes fellow New England alums Chase Winovich and Raleigh Webb.

@NFLPinnacleBeat
Is there any considerations to move Jonathan Jones back inside or is that never happening again?
I think it would have been a consideration had Jack Jones been available to start the season — and might still be if and when Jones returns from the hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve.

I’m of the mind that the Patriots’ ideal cornerback setup when everyone’s healthy is Christian Gonzalez and Jack Jones on the outside and Jonathan Jones in the slot, where he played for his first seven seasons before moving to the perimeter in 2022. I also could see the Patriots going with Gonzalez and Jon Jones when they have two cornerbacks on the field, then moving the latter inside and inserting Jack Jones outside in their three-corner nickel.

Alas, Jack Jones will be unavailable for at least the first four weeks (and potentially much longer) and Jonathan Jones is a substantially better perimeter option than Marcus Jones, Myles Bryant or Shaun Wade.

That group will have its hands full this Sunday against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Jones has done a good job of successfully limiting the uber-explosive Hill in the past. Here are his coverage stats against the former Kansas City Chiefs star over their last five meetings, per Pro Football Focus:

2022, Week 17: 3 targets, no catches, one interception
2022, Week 1: 6 targets, 4 catches, 50 yards
2020, Week 4: 4 targets, 2 catches, 39 yards
2019, Week 14: 7 targets, 5 catches, 50 yards
2018 AFC Championship: 2 targets, no catches

Those include receptions against zone coverage, so Jones’ stats against Hill in man (often with over-the-top help from New England’s safeties) are even stingier. Charting by MassLive.com’s Mark Daniels has Hill with seven catches on 16 targets for 88 yards against Jones over those five games.

Jonathan Jones’ coverage against Tyreek Hill has been elite https://t.co/Nm9d3bdnzc pic.twitter.com/zfVusVGIFT

— Mark Daniels (@ByMarkDaniels) September 14, 2023

Hill destroyed the Patriots in their first two meetings (seven catches, 133 yards, one touchdown in 2017; seven catches, 142 yards, three scores in 2018) but has been quiet by his All-Pro standards ever since. Over those last five matchups, he’s averaged a modest 4.6 catches and 63.4 yards per game with one total touchdown catch.

It is worth noting, though, that Jones popped up on the injury report Thursday with an ankle. That’s certainly something worth monitoring ahead of Sunday.