A UFC heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 226 as No. 2 ranked Ciryl Gane faces No. 7 ranked Serghei Spivac.
- Date: Saturday, September 2, 2023 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Accor Arena – Paris, France | TV: ESPN2
French native Benoit “God of War” Saint-Denis defends home turf against Thiago Moises. Saint-Denis is riding a three-fight win streak, winning all three by finish (two submissions, one TKO). Moises is on a two-fight win streak but lost the two fights previous to that.
Saint-Denis is two inches taller and has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. He also has significantly more stopping power, averaging 1.42 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Moises’s 0.26. BSD lands at a high click, averaging 1.64 more significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs 2.24 more per minute. The God of War should also have the grappling advantage, averaging more takedowns, more submissions, and a better takedown defense rate.
Saint-Denis is the favorite at -170. BSD gets most of his wins by submission, but Moises has only been finished by submission once, so take the safer route with the outright wager.
Thug and The BeastFormer UFC Strawweight champion Rose “Thug” Namajunas takes on No. 3 ranked flyweight Manon “The Beast” Fiorot at 125 lbs. This will be Namajunas’s first fight in over a year since losing her title to Carla Esparza. The 10-1 Fiorot welcomes Namajunas to flyweight, looking to keep her ten-fight win streak intact.
Fiorot is two inches taller, but both fighters have a 65-inch reach. The Beast doesn’t have one-punch knockout power but finishes her opponents with volume. Namajunas can knock out opponents with kicks, but that was at a lower weight class. Fiorot lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute to Thug’s 3.66. Namajunas averages 1.28 more takedowns and 0.42 submissions per 15 minutes.
This is a tough fight to assess because Rose is moving to flyweight. I think Fiorot’s size and strength will be too much for Namajunas. Take Fiorot to win outright at -188.
UFC Heavyweight Main EventCiryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac
- Odds to Win: Gane -170 | Spivac +138
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -160 | Submission +300 | Decision +320
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +330 | No -480
Former heavyweight title contender Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane takes Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac. Gane has lost two of his previous three fights, but those were against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou in UFC Championship bouts. Spivac is riding a three-fight win streak, seven months removed from submitting Derrick Lewis.
Gane is one inch taller and will have a three-inch reach advantage. Gane has more power than Spivac, but it’s insignificant, especially at heavyweight. The Good Kid lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute, which is a lot for this weight class. He also absorbs 0.59 fewer significant strikes per minute. However, Spivac averages 5.05 takedowns per 125 minutes to Gane 0.61. Their submission rates are similar, but with Spivac’s takedowns and Gane’s lack of takedown defense, the Moldovan could rack up significant ground control.
With Jones creating the blueprint for beating Gane and Spivac’s volume of takedowns, I think there’s a possibility for an upset here. Take the Polar Bear to win by decision at +700.
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac Betting Card- Saint-Denis to win (-170)
- Take Fiorot to win (-188)
- Spivac by decision (+700)
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