The tightrope college football teams have to walk in pursuit of a CFP berth gets narrower every week. Inevitably, former contenders suffer defeat, and championship aspirations get quashed. Programs continue to fall by the wayside week after week, abandoning hope of being included in the national semifinal.
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners appeared destined for a similar fate, escaping catastrophe in the late stages of their Week 8 contests.
Flat First Half
Alabama was utterly outmatched in the first half of their showdown against the 19th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. The Crimson Tide were down 20-7 at the half despite entering the SEC showdown as -9.5 home favorites. Nick Saban made the necessary adjustments at the half, scoring 27 unanswered points in the second half. Consequently, Bama went on to win 34-20, covering the number at home.
Lingering Concerns
Still, this wasn’t the first time Alabama struggled this season. In fact, barely escaping with a win has been more of the rule than the exception in 2023.
Last week, the Crimson Tide barely fought off the Arkansas Razorbacks, scoring just three second-half points and hanging on to win 24-21.
Likewise, Alabama erased a second-half deficit against the Texas A&M Aggies for a 26-20 win the week prior.
Factoring in their loss to the Texas Longhorns and the Crimson Tide look underserving of their distinction as title contenders.
Boomer Sooner
Oklahoma’s 31-29 win over the UCF Knights couldn’t have been more eventful. The Sooners entered the Big 12 matchup as -17.5 chalk, expecting to roll over the visiting Knights. However, Oklahoma didn’t steal victory from the clutches of defeat until the waning moments. In doing so, they kept their playoff hopes intact, letting doubt creep into bettors’ minds.
Upcoming Schedule
The Dillon Gabriel-led Sooners may have gotten through their most notable contests, but they face different challenges on the horizon.
Oklahoma plays three of their next four games on the road. Included in that is a showdown with the unassuming Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas has emerged as an unsuspecting underdog, breaking into the top 25 earlier in the campaign. Moreover, the Jayhawks are 4-0 at home this season, averaging 42.8 points per game.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys and BYU Cougars have also flexed their offensive muscles, possessing strengths to exploit the Sooners’ weaknesses.
Conference Championship Games
Finally, both the Sooners and Crimson Tide will likely need to win their conference championship games to be included in the CFP’s final four. Further, both squads will have to get past a formidable opponent to do so.
Better Price Required
Heading into Week 9, the Crimson Tide are priced at +1500 to win the National Championship, with the Sooners moderately ahead at +1300. Backing either team at their current offering would be ill-advised.
Alabama has a gauntlet of opponents to run through, including a battle with the LSU Tigers and a potential SEC Championship Game.
Similarly, Oklahoma is about to embark on a challenging part of its schedule, still needing a Big 12 Title to assure itself of a perfect record.
Conclusion
It’s worth taking a pass on both programs at this point in the season. Neither the Crimson Tide nor the Sooners have shown they can contend with the top teams in the country. It seems increasingly unlikely that Alabama or Oklahoma will be included in the CFP, and they could completely fall out of the picture any week now.
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