Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLDS Preview & Pick
The MLB Postseason is upon us, and after a fun round of wild card matchups, the Divisional Round is here. The MLB-leading Atlanta Braves host the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies for a best-of-five series in what definitely should be the most entertaining matchup between NL East rivals.
These two clubs faced off in the NLDS last year, where the Phillies took down the Braves in four games. Atlanta isn’t messing around this time. While they had their wild-card bye, they played a simulated game open to the public to stay fresh. On the other hand, the Phillies completely mauled the Miami Marlins behind a crowd that ESPN’s Jeff Passan compared to an SEC stadium.
This will be a fun one, and I’ll assert off the bat: the winner of this series will win the World Series.
Braves vs. Phillies Starting Pitching Edge
I hate to be that guy, but can we stop acting like Spencer Strider is the best pitcher in baseball? Yes, he has electrifying stuff that has led to his crazy strikeout numbers, but he’s had a 4.55 ERA over his last ten starts. He is no pushover, but his place on the mound should not warrant the Phillies being severe underdogs in Game 1. The Phillies will likely trot out Ranger Suarez to combat Strider in Game 1, who was borderline untouchable last postseason with a 1.23 ERA over five appearances. Additionally, Suarez only allowed one run over six innings against the Braves this season in his lone start.
Heading into Game 2, an epic showdown awaits between two of baseball’s best, Zack Wheeler and Max Fried. Wheeler is fresh off a dominant Game 1 outing against the Marlins and will benefit from being on regular rest come Game 2 on Monday. Fried hasn’t pitched since September 21 due to a blister on his left index finger, and he threw in the Braves’ simulated game and did not look sharp in the slightest, allowing three runs over five innings. Fried wore a bandage on his finger in the simulated game, which will not be permitted on Monday. If Fried is not at his best, which it appears, Wheeler runs away with this matchup.
Game 3 heads back to Philadelphia with Aaron Nola on the mound after putting together his best start of the season in Game 2 against the Marlins, where he tossed a scoreless seven innings. For Atlanta, with Charlie Morton out, they have no clear option. Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, or Kyle Wright could eat innings, but on the road in Philadelphia, this is a make-or-break game for the Braves against Nola and the Philly crowd.
Games 4 and 5 will bring Suarez/Wheeler and Strider/Fried back around, but with Strider not elite down the stretch and Fried injured, the Phillies have the advantage.
Edge: Phillies
Braves vs. Phillies Relief Pitching Edge
Neither the Braves nor the Phillies have lights-out bullpens. The Braves have more reliable options, but the Phillies have more elite arms, which matters more in the postseason. Raisel Iglesias anchors the backend for Atlanta, but he’s not the shutdown closer he once was. The Phillies have plenty of arms they can trust compared to past seasons. Craig Kimbrel brings years of valuable postseason experience, Jose Alvarado has a 1.74 ERA on the year as he consistently touches triple digits, Jeff Hoffman has turned it on with a 1.59 ERA in September, while September call-up Orion Kerkering has one of the most wicked sweepers you’ll ever see.
Edge: Phillies… by a tad
Braves vs. Phillies Starting Lineup Edge
As loaded as the Phillies may be with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Bryson Stott fresh off his Game 2 grand slam, this Braves lineup is just a different beast. Ronald Acuna Jr., batting .337 with 41 home runs, 106 RBIs, and 73 stolen bases, is likely the best player in baseball. Matt Olson launched an absurd 54 home runs with 139 RBIs, the most by a player since 2009. After those two, guys keep coming, as Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna all had at least 33 home run seasons. Then, with guys like Michael Harris II, Orlando Arcia, Eddie Rosario, and Sean Murphy, the depth is endless.
Edge: Braves
Braves vs. Phillies Bench Edge
We haven’t seen the Braves need to utilize their bench much this season, and in all likelihood, we won’t see it against the Phillies. Kevin Pillar and Vaughn Grissom can be nice pieces, but if they are in the game at all this series, something must’ve gone wrong for Atlanta. The Phillies are much more lenient regarding their bench pieces, especially in the outfield. Castellanos is the only main-stay in right field, but after that, we could see either Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, or former Braves’ top prospect Cristian Pache occupying the other outfield spots.
Edge: Phillies
Braves vs. Phillies Betting Odds
Series odds: Braves -205 | Phillies +164
Game 1 odds: Braves -205 | Phillies +170 | O/U: 8.5
Braves vs. Phillies Pick
Let me tell you, this Phillies team isn’t afraid of anyone. To them, they can beat any baseball team ever created, and they have a ton of fun doing it. They’ll enter Game 1 in Atlanta with no shortage of confidence going up against this Braves team that they already beat in the postseason last year. On the other end, the Braves are worried about the Phillies. You don’t have a simulated game open to the public if you are not.
I’m not sold on Strider giving the Braves two elite starts, and I’m worried about Fried’s longevity with his hand after he didn’t pitch lights out in a freaking fake game. As good as Atlanta’s lineup was in the regular season, the postseason is a new beast, and the Phillies have the talent to go toe to toe with anyone.
The X-Factor? The Philadelphia crowd. If the Phillies split the first two games in Atlanta, they will not return to Atlanta for a Game 5. Game 3 sets up perfectly for them as they’d have Nola against essentially a bullpen game for Atlanta, then imagine that crowd when the Phillies are up 2-1 over the Braves in Game 4. If you don’t think the crowd matters, you’re fooling yourself. It mattered last postseason, it mattered Tuesday and Wednesday night against the Marlins, and it certainly matters to the Phillies, who feed off the crowd’s energy.
To the public, this would be an upset, but to the Phillies, they expect to win this.
Pick: Phillies in 4 (+570)
Braves vs. Phillies Schedule & TV
Saturday, Oct. 7
Game 1 | Phillies at Braves | 6:07 p.m. | TBS
Monday, Oct. 9
Game 2 | Phillies at Braves | 6:07 p.m. | TBS
Wednesday, Oct. 11
Game 3 | Braves at Phillies | TBD | TBS
Thursday, Oct. 12
Game 3 | Braves at Phillies | TBD | TBS (if necessary)
Saturday, Oct. 14
Game 5 | Phillies at Braves | TBD | TBS (if necessary)
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