At this point, we are just hours away from the CFP Selection Committee’s first official ranking of the season. We’ve spent the past two months evaluating which teams have the best chance of claiming this year’s National Championship, and some of those thoughts will be validated on Tuesday night.
Of course, the opposite is also true. Some teams, formerly with championship aspirations, have fallen by the wayside. And that list appears to be growing. That leaves bettors with just a handful of legitimate title contenders to hone in on in the National Championship futures market.
Big 12 Relegated
Big 12 programs appear to be relegated to watching the College Football Playoff from the sidelines. The latest casualty is the Oklahoma Sooners, who imploded in a Week 9 conference showdown against the Kansas Jayhawks.
Even though it was their first loss of the year, these concerns have been mounting for the Sooners over the past few weeks. Oklahoma barely escaped Week 8’s matchup against the UCF Knights and continues to get exposed defensively.
Consequently, every Big 12 team has suffered a loss, making it a virtual certainty that no one is included in the national semifinal.
Pac-12 Concerns
There could be another conference quickly following suit. One by one, Pac-12 schools have taken turns beating up each other. At one point earlier this season, eight different teams were ranked in the top 25, with four of those schools in the top 11. A short while later, all but one team has incurred a loss, and the prospect of the Washington Huskies running the table is shrinking.
The lowly Stanford Cardinal were within striking distance of the Huskies until the waning moments of Saturday’s home loss. Washington scored a touchdown with less than two minutes to go, putting them up 42-33 over their conference rivals. That was the fourth straight week that Washington has failed to cover the spread, eking out victories as double-digit favorites.
With matchups against the USC Trojans, Utah Utes, and Oregon State Beavers on the horizon, the Huskies haven’t even crossed the most challenging part of their schedule.
Familiar Foes
That leaves the selection committee with the usual suspects to choose from.
With each passing week, it becomes increasingly unlikely that anyone can hold a candle to the two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are menacing on both sides of the football, ranking in the top seven in total offense and defense. Still, Georgia has an appealing +250 price tag to three-peat as champs.
Dual Representatives
That price remains higher than anticipated because of the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan is priced as a co-favorite with the Bulldogs, sharing a +250 designation. The Buckeyes aren’t far behind, priced at +700.
An impending Week 13 matchup between the Wolverines and Buckeyes could be the only loss either program has to worry about. If that’s the case, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that both programs will be included in the CFP.
FSU Seminoles
The only other team with a futures price below +1400 is the Florida State Seminoles. FSU has made short work of its opponents this season, riding a perfect 8-0 record through the first two months of the season.
Not to diminish their opponents along the way, but a Week 13 road game against the Florida Gators and an ACC Championship game are the only barriers between the Seminoles and a playoff berth. Provided they don’t lose both, the Seminoles could be the final piece of the postseason puzzle.
Final Thoughts
Priced at +1400 and +1600, respectively, the Oregon Ducks and Alabama Crimson Tide are the other contenders worth noting. But with one loss, neither team can afford to slip up over the next five weeks. That mountain becomes more challenging to climb when considering the conference championship opponents that await both squads.
Still, it might not matter what Alabama and Oregon accomplish, as the top four teams in the country control their own destinies.
That is unless the inaugural CFP rankings illuminate something differently.
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