Tennessee-Alabama Showdown: Is an 8.5 Spread Too Generous?

by

Oct 17, 2023

When Tennessee and Alabama last squared off, it was a college football spectacle that won’t soon be forgotten. Fans rushed the field in the final moments, teetering on the edge of excitement, lighting cigars in triumphant celebration over Alabama’s victory. With the roles reversed and revenge on the line this year, will we witness another classic?

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Alabama opened as 8.5 points favorites, and the odds remain unchanged. The total over/under for the game is set at 49.5.

Surprisingly, Alabama’s approach this season is old school – relying on a sturdy defense. However, Jalen Milroe is settling in at quarterback. The burning question: Can Joe Milton and his Volunteers march into Tuscaloosa and steal a win?

Alabama’s offensive strategy this year revolves around their ground game, and it’s proven effective, with Milroe leading the aerial assault. Contrarily, the Tennessee offense boasts the sixth-best rushing offense in the nation. They’re grinding out an impressive average of over 231 yards on the ground each game. Last weekend, this was on full display against Texas A&M’s reputed defense.

However, Alabama’s rush defense isn’t easily broken. They rank in the top 20, yielding 105 yards per game.

Now, here’s where the clash gets intriguing. Tennessee has amassed 24 sacks in six games, translating to four per game. This outstanding performance places them third in the nation. Alabama, on the other hand, has shown vulnerabilities. Coach Nick Saban hasn’t shied away from expressing his concerns about the offensive line. And he has a point – the Crimson Tide’s O-line has allowed 31 sacks, or 4.43 per game, ranking them fifth-most in college football. With Milroe frequently under pressure and Tennessee’s defense known for harassing quarterbacks, this matchup will undoubtedly dictate the game’s rhythm.

While Alabama might eventually emerge victorious, the spread seems a tad generous. Covering an 8.5-point advantage might be a taller order than many anticipate.

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Thumbnail photo via Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

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