After Week 2’s home loss to the Texas Longhorns, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes were all but squashed. Bama had not yet run the gauntlet of SEC teams, and they already suffered their first loss.
Here we are eight weeks later; Alabama has won seven straight and just saw its most significant National Championship odds jump, week-over-week.
First Saturday in November
The first Saturday in November is always a clash between the Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers. The winner of this year’s edition all but guaranteed themselves a spot in the SEC Championship game at the start of December. Alabama came into the contest as short -3.5 home favorites but made quick work of their conference rivals.
Although they were all square in the half, Bama systematically wore their opponents down. The Crimson Tide recorded the final three touchdowns of the game, easily walking away with a 42-28 win.
Coast to the Finish Line
The rest of Alabama’s schedule appears to be a formality. The Crimson Tide travel to take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 11, following that up with games against the Chattanooga Mocs and Auburn Tigers, following a bye week.
At one point, the Kentucky matchup likely presented more of an obstacle to the Crimson Tides’ title aspirations; however, the Wildcats have dropped three of their past four, allowing 33 or more points in all three losses. Given Alabama’s offensive pedigree, they should have no problem hanging a number on the hosts.
SEC Championship
The conference championship game is the only obstacle between Alabama and a return to the national semifinal. Awaiting them once they get there is a showdown with the two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs.
A win against the Bulldogs guarantees Alabama a spot in the CFP. They would be part of a contingent of one-loss teams with the most robust resumes of the group.
Two-Loss Playoff Team?
Even with a second loss, the Crimson Tide may be able to convince the playoff committee that they are worthy of inclusion. But they’ll need some help to get there.
Heading into Week 11, five teams are ahead of Alabama on the National Championship futures board. That means that one of the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, or Florida State Seminoles will need to suffer at least one loss for Alabama to move up the list.
Challenges Ahead
Thankfully, there are some pitfalls along the way. The Buckeyes and Wolverines battle it out in Week 13, with the winner likely heading to the Big Ten Championship Game. Further, Michigan also has a pivotal matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Likewise, the Seminoles must travel to the swamp for a Week 13 tilt against the Florida Gators before resting up for the ACC title game. There are no guarantees for the fourth-ranked Seminoles and even less room for mistakes.
A loss in the SEC Championship Game doesn’t necessarily preclude Alabama from being included in the final four, provided the teams ahead suffer at least one setback.
Current Odds
Alabama’s title odds were halved after their latest victory. Coming into this week’s grudge match against the Tigers, the Crimson Tide were priced as mid-range +1600 options. After the win, they are down to +800. That line could shift even further, depending on how the next few weeks play out.
Final Thoughts
Once considered dead in the water, the Crimson Tide have roared back to include themselves in the playoff conversation. Alabama has made it through the worst part of its schedule, whereas teams ahead of them have a laundry list of challenges ahead.
Alabama hasn’t missed consecutive postseasons since the new format was implemented. They are determined to extend that trend beyond this season.
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