A UFC Light Heavyweight Title bout headlines UFC 295 as the vacant championship is on the line between No. 1 ranked Jiri Prochazka and No. 3 Alex Pereira.
- Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: New York City, New York, United States | TV: PPV
No. 5 ranked Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade faces No. 7 Mackenzie Dern. Andrade looks to bounce back after dropping three straight bouts between strawweight and flyweight. Dern is coming off a decision win over Angela Hill but is only 2-2 over her last four fights.
Dern is three inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. However, there is no question that Andrade will have the striking advantage. They possess identical knockdown numbers, but Andrade lands 3.32 more significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.25 more. Andrade is also the more active wrestler, averaging 1.73 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Dern averages 1.12 more submissions.
Andrade has looked in decline over her previous three fights, but Dern has very suspect striking. If Andrade can keep this fight on the feet, she should win. At +168, we’ll tentatively take Andrade outright. However, if she loses this contest, we can never put Andrade on our betting card again.
UFC Interim Heavyweight ChampionshipNo. 2 ranked heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich faces No. 4 Tom Aspinall for the UFC Interim Heavyweight title. Pavlovich is on a six-fight win streak and has only lost one bout in his 19-fight career. Aspinall won his last time out but dropped his previous fight due to a knee injury.
Aspinall is two inches taller, but Pavlovich has a massive six-inch reach advantage. Aspinall has an impressive 2.78 knockdowns per 15 minutes, but Pavlovich has a ridiculous 6.31. Both heavyweights land at an incredible 8.72 and 7.65 significant strikes per minute, with Pavlovich absorbing 1.43 more. Aspinall could attempt a takedown, averaging 3.7 per 15 minutes, but Pavlovich has a 75 percent takedown defense rate. Aspinall will also have the submission advantage if the fight hits the ground.
Aspinall has more ways to win, but Pavlovich destroys everything he hits. Everything points to this fight ending by knockout; who lands the blow is another question. Either fighter could end this fight by KO/TKO, but Pavlovich has six straight UFC knockouts. Take Pavlovich to win by 1st Round KO/TKO at +260.
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Main EventJiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
- Odds to Win: Prochazka -124 | Pereira +102
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -290 | Submission +750 | Decision +360
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +370 | No -600
Jiri “BJP” Prochazka and Alex “Poatan” Pereira fight for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight title. Prochazka had previously relinquished the belt without losing it due to injury. He has won 13 in a row and three straight in the UFC. Prochazka has finished opponents in 11 consecutive fights (ten KO/TKO and one submission). Pereira is coming off a split-decision win over Jan BÅ‚achowicz after exchanging one win and one loss with Israel Adesanya.
Pereira is one inch taller, but Prochazka has a one-inch reach advantage. Prochazka averages 0.75 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Pereira’s 0.43. Both land similar significant strikes per minute at 5.77 and 5.11. However, Pereira absorbs 1.7 fewer. Prochazka has better grappling statistics, but the expectation is that this fight will occur on the feet. This fight is tough to predict due to Prochazka’s time away from the cage.
Pereira is favored at -124 and, by all accounts, should have the striking advantage. However, Prochazka has far more mixed martial arts experience, so we’ll take the slight underdog at +102.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Betting Card
- Andrade to win (+168)
- Pavlovich to win by 1st Round KO/TKO (+260)
- Prochazka to win (+102)
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