CFP Playoff Prediction: Picking Between Alabama and Michigan

by

Dec 29, 2023

As we approach the College Football Playoff semifinals, all eyes are on the highly anticipated showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Michigan Wolverines. This matchup, set to be a classic battle in the Rose Bowl, is drawing significant attention with its close betting lines and high stakes.

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Alabama vs. Michigan Odds at FanDuel 

  • Spread: Alabama +1.5 (-102) | Michigan -1.5 (-120)
  • Moneyline: Alabama (+108) | Michigan (-130)
  • Total: OVER 44.5 (-112) | UNDER 44.5 (-108)

Alabama enters this game as slight favorites, with the line moving down to 1.5, indicating a very close contest. Initially, Michigan opened at -2, but we’ve seen only a half-point move since. The total is set at 44.5, reflecting expectations of a tightly contested defensive battle.

Team Analysis:

  • Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama brings a wealth of experience to this game, having been in this position numerous times before. Under the guidance of Head Coach Nick Saban, they have a record of triumph in these high-pressure situations. While they’ve had their ups and downs in championship games, their semifinal track record is notably strong. The Crimson Tide’s performance against Big Ten teams is especially impressive, boasting an 8-1 record under Saban, with their only loss coming against Ohio State.

  • Michigan Wolverines: Michigan has arguably been the best team in college football throughout the season. They demonstrated their prowess last year and continue to do so this season despite a challenging game against TCU in last year’s CFP. The key player for Michigan in this game is undoubtedly J.J. McCarthy. His ability to rebound from critical mistakes, as seen in that TCU game, and make significant plays will be crucial, especially if Michigan struggles with its inside running game.

Check out SportsGrid’s CFB Game Picks and CFB Props Picks all Season Long.

Defensive Battle: Michigan boasts the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, presenting a formidable challenge for Alabama. A critical aspect of this game will be Michigan’s ability to contain Jalen Milroe and possibly force turnovers.

Final Thoughts: The betting line being stuck suggests that Michigan definitely has a shot at victory. However, the historical dominance of Alabama in these situations, coupled with their impressive record against Big Ten opponents, makes it hard to bet against them. The prediction is for Alabama to edge out Michigan by a field goal in what promises to be a riveting and closely contested semifinal.

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Thumbnail photo via Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

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