Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market.
To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets
Maple Leafs Moneyline (+106): 5-Star Rating
Fresh off their 1-0 overtime victory, the Toronto Maple Leafs conclude their home-and-home series with the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday night. The betting market has installed the Jets as short home favorites, but our projections reveal a different edge worth playing.
The Leafs laid a bit of an egg on Wednesday night, getting outplayed by a substantive margin; however, that was the exception to an otherwise impressive rule. Since the end of December, Toronto has outplayed its opponents in nine of 13 games. Over that stretch, they’ve compiled a 52.8% expected goals-for rating, the tenth-best in the league.
Conversely, Winnipeg is starting to come a little unglued. The Jets have been outplayed in two of three amid deteriorating offensive metrics. Across their last seven games, the Jets have been limited to nine or fewer high-danger chances in all but two of those contests, for a disappointing average of 8.0 per game.
Winnipeg doesn’t have the offensive wherewithal to keep pace with their guests on Saturday night. That leaves a bettor-friendly angle on backing the Maple Leafs, rated as a five-star play.
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New Jersey Devils vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning Moneyline (-156): 5-Star Rating
Many people assumed the New Jersey Devils would continue their ascent after last year’s 52-22-8 record. But that hasn’t been the case halfway through the 2023-24 campaign. New Jersey is lingering in the middle of the Eastern Conference pack, trying to stay relevant in the playoff race. Unfortunately for them, the cards are stacked against the Devils in tonight’s clash versus the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Consistency continues to limit New Jersey’s pursuit of a postseason berth. The Devils have been outplayed in four of seven, with a below-average 49.9% expected goals-for rating. Defensive irresponsibility appears to be the root of those issues. The Devils are giving up an average of 10.9 high-danger chances per game, with four of those seven opponents exceeding 11.
A surging Lightning squad could expose those defensive zone coverage issues. The Bolts have tallied four or more goals in five of their past seven, averaging 4.6 goals per game over that stretch. Combined with the Devils’ 84.6% team save percentage over their last three, Tampa Bay could be poised for another strong showing.
The SportsGrid hockey algorithm reveals a substantive edge in backing the hosts. We give the Lightning a 74.9% chance of claiming victory, far exceeding their current betting price’s 60.9% implied probability. Taking Tampa on the moneyline is a five-star play.
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Moneyline (+235): 5-Star Rating
The Vancouver Canucks are looking to head into the All-Star Break on a high note as they host the Columbus Blue Jackets at the Rogers Arena. But the Blue Jackets might have other plans on Saturday night.
You wouldn’t know it from their position in the standings, but the Blue Jackets have been playing an elite brand of hockey lately. Columbus has posted expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in six straight, equalling or out-chancing their opponents in scoring and high-danger chances in all but one of those contests. Still, the Jackets have only two wins over the six-game sample, making them natural progression candidates over their coming sample.
Vancouver is positioned on the opposite end of the progression/regression spectrum. The Canucks have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in four of six, resulting in decreased output. Across all strengths, Vancouver is scoring on 10.6% of shots recently, below their season-long average of 13.4%. That downward trajectory should continue, precipitating more losses over the next few weeks.
These teams met a couple of weeks ago, with the Blue Jackets walking away with a 4-3 win. We’re betting history repeats itself, with Columbus halting the Canucks point streak at ten games.
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