A UFC light heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 234 as No. 3 ranked Magomed Ankalaev faces No. 7 Johnny Walker after an illegal knee ended their bout in October and was declared a no-contest.
- Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+
Veteran journeyman Jim Miller faces Gabriel Benitez, who, despite being five years younger, is still 35 years old. Miller has won four of his last five fights, all four by finish (three KO/TKO, one submission). Benitez has one win over his previous three bouts, finishing Charlie Ontiveros his last time out.
Both competitors are five feet eight inches tall and have an identical 71-inch reach. Despite Benitez’s 33 matches, Miller has the experience advantage with 54 career fights. The stats show Benitez with slightly more one-punch power, averaging 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Miller’s 0.22. However, Miller’s average is dragged down by a lack of power earlier in his career. The New Jersey native has shown a resurgence of power in his old age. Benitez lands 1.93 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 0.97 more. Miller will have a considerable edge on the ground, averaging 1.56 takedowns and 0.67 submissions per 15 minutes.
At -134, Miller is a slight favorite, and we’ll take the ageless wonder straight up.
Starboy Gets His RematchNo. 5 ranked flyweight Matheus Nicolau takes on No. 6 Manel “Starboy” Kape. Kape started his UFC career in 2021 with a loss to the current flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja and then a second loss to Nicolau. Starboy enters this contest on a four-fight win streak. Nicolau had a six-fight win streak until Brandon Royval knocked him out in April 2023.
Nicolau is one inch taller, but Kape has a two-inch reach advantage. Both men average similar knockdown rates at 1.19 and 1.09 per minute. However, Kape lands 1.46 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.37 more. Nicolau will have the grappling edge, averaging 0.83 more takedowns and 0.45 submissions per 15 minutes.
These two fought to a close split decision in their previous bout, but I still lean toward Kape. Instead of taking Kape outright at -280, we’ll grab the plus money on a KO/TKO at +180.
UFC Light Heavyweight Main EventMagomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
- Odds to Win: Ankalaev -550 | Walker +390
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -310 | Submission +650 | Decision +420
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +400 | No -650
No. 3 ranked Light heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev faces No. 7 Johnny Walker. Ankalaev is riding an 11-fight unbeaten streak, having fought to a draw for the UFC Lightweight title against Jan Blachowicz and a no-contest against Walker last time out. Walker comes in on a four-fight unbeaten streak, beating Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, Anthony Smith, and that no-contest against Ankalaev.
Walker is three inches taller and will have a seven-inch reach advantage. He showcases a wild and unpredictable side at times but has dialed in his striking over his last few bouts. Both fighters have similar knockdown rates at 0.64 and 0.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes. They have similar outputs, landing 3.56 and 3.87 significant strikes while absorbing 2.2 and 2.64 per minute. Ankalaev attempts slightly more takedowns but has a much better takedown defense rate at 86 percent to Walker’s 57.
Ankalaev is the more conservative and calculated of the two, but Walker is the more athletic. Ankalaev was the outright favorite in their last fight at -355 and is an even bigger favorite this time at -550. Whenever the the odds are weighted this heavily in one fighter’s favor, the “MMA Gods” almost dare us to take the underdog, and history has bore that out enough times. That said, Ankalaev could be the best-uncrowned light heavyweight in the world.
We can’t take a -550 favorite, so we’ll wager Ankalaev gets a KO/TKO in Rounds 3, 4, or 5 at +370.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Betting Card- Miller to win (-134)
- Kape by KO/TKO (+180)
- Ankalaev wins by KO/TKO in Rounds 3, 4, or 5 (+370)
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