Make room, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Johnny Damon. There’s another premium outfielder on the market, and his ultimate destination might determine the future of those three marquee free agents.
In an effort to cut costs and rebuild their farm system, the Detroit Tigers have informed teams that Curtis Granderson is available for the right package in a trade. The 28-year-old Granderson is an attractive commodity because his current contract runs through the 2012 season with an option for 2013. He is due $5.5 million during the upcoming season, and $23.75 million over the next three years, excluding the club option.
With Holliday and Bay seeking four-plus year commitments worth no less than $15 million per season, and agent Scott Boras likening Damon to Derek Jeter, acquiring Granderson seems a more financially sound alternative.
Additionally, the left-handed hitting Granderson offers a power-speed combination that none of the free-agent outfielders truly possess. His tools have always screamed "superstar." But even though he earned his first trip to the All-Star Game in 2009, Granderson’s game also has some holes.
The ideal role for a player with Granderson’s talents would be to serve as a dynamic hitter atop the batting order and let him use his power as a run producer when the situation calls for it. His basic stats from the past season support that. Grandy mashed 30 homers, scored 91 times, stole 20 bases and drove in 71 runs. The vast majority (535) of his 631 at-bats came in the one hole of Jim Leyland’s lineup, and Granderson amassed 59 RBIs from that position, the seventh-best total among leadoff men.
Unfortunately, Granderson’s bloated strikeout rate (141 in those 631 at-bats) is suboptimal for a catalyst, and although he drew 72 walks in 2009, his on-base percentage was just .327 thanks to a lowly .249 batting average. To be sure, there are indications that Granderson was unlucky last season — his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was just .276 despite a solid 21.2 line-drive percentage, and his career batting line is a more palatable .272 AVG/.344 OBP/.484 SLG.
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Granderson’s true Achilles’ heel with the bat is his inability to hit left-handed pitching. Over his career, Grandy owns a .894 OPS against righties, but has been clamped to a .614 mark by opposing southpaws. And that number tumbled even further during the past season, as Granderson went just 33-for-180 (.183 average) with a paltry six extra-base hits against lefties, and posted a .484 OPS — the worst of any everyday player in the American League.
Granderson’s success against righties — including 28 homers in just 451 at-bats — revived his overall OPS to .780, which is acceptable for a starting center fielder, particularly in light of his sour luck, and especially when Granderson’s terrific range in the outfield is taken into account.
And that’s why Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski has already received inquiries from several teams about Granderson.
A report by Newsday indicates that the Angels see Granderson as a fit in left field, which would allow them to move Juan Rivera to right or DH, if Vladimir Guerrero departs in free agency. The Yankees could use Granderson to supplant Damon, and Granderson could also be a fit for the Cubs.
Assuming the Tigers do ship Granderson out of Detroit, where he lands will shape the market for Holliday, Bay, Damon and others, because it will remove one team from the bidding.
If that team is the Yankees, the free agents’ future salaries could be significantly depressed, since there will be no need for other organizations to compete with the Steinbrenners’ coffers. Likewise, if Granderson ends up with the Cubs, the trade could set off a ripple effect which sends Milton Bradley out of the Windy City, further altering the scene for free-agent outfielders.
The slew of trades consummated in the first week after the World Series show that trades will play a significant role this offseason, because of the limited talent available via free agency and the financial constraints many teams face.
Curtis Granderson could be the first big name to switch uniforms this winter, and his fellow big-name outfielders are surely watching.
