Then the Jets and Vikings had to go and screw it all up.
Both teams looked like championship-caliber squads last Sunday. The Vikings won by such a large margin that they were free to allow the elderly to pretend to be hip in the locker room, and the Jets made Nate Kaeding look like, well, Nate Kaeding. (At least the fans still have his back, right?)
So now we're faced with very difficult scenarios, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This is the second-to-last week of football. That means in a few short weeks, there is essentially nothing on this earth worth looking forward to until next September. There's no room for error this week.
(Home team in caps.)
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) over New York Jets
A few years ago, you wouldn't even have to think twice about picking against Peyton Manning in a playoff game in which he's facing a tough defense — let alone an opposing team that's getting more than seven points.
But then that silly little 2006 season happened, and Peyton exorcised all his demons and all that junk. But did he really? Lost in the Colts' 20-3 win last week were two errors for which Manning was excused. First, the Ed Reed interception in the third quarter that would have changed the game had it not been for Pierre Garcon hitting the left bumper along the sidelines. Then there was Reed's second interception, which was called back due to a Corey Ivy pass interference call that can only be described as dubious at best.
So the 17-point win was well-deserved for the Colts, but they left open at least a shimmer of doubt that they could be had in their own building. A bounce here and a break there, and a visiting team could be on top.
And of course, the Jets, after a miserable offensive first half, controlled their game in San Diego for the last 30 minutes and came out on top. Kaeding gave them some assistance, but even when the Jets trailed in the fourth, it seemed like they had the outcome in their command.
The ensuing media storm has compared this Jets team to every underdog to ever do anything anywhere: the '07 Giants, the '01 Patriots, and even the '68 Jets, which should be heresy for Jets fans.
So what can we really expect this Sunday afternoon?
Well, for one, simply by being the worst rushing team in the NFL, the Colts have already neutralized the Jets' rushing defense. Then there's Darrelle Revis, who can cover anybody. But there are a select few quarterbacks in this league that know how to adjust to a top corner, and Manning is in that group.
Plus, consider the fact that Manning got a fair look at the New York defense in the Week 16 lay-down game. Manning wasn't spectacular in his limited work, but his half-effort offense got to see the Jets at full speed just a few weeks ago. Compare that to Tom Brady, whose offense was disjointed and confused in New York in Week 2. In the rematch, Brady knew what he was doing, as he hit Wes Welker for something like 80 catches and even got a touchdown to Randy Moss.
If Brady can throw for 300-plus yards against the Jets, outside, in late November, then you have to like your chances with Manning, who is rested and playing indoors. Don't you?
If Manning can put together a pair of successful drives in the first quarter, Mark Sanchez will be forced to pass, and we all know what means.
In any case, it'd be hard to ask for a better AFC Championship Game.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Minnesota
Thank goodness the Vikings rolled past the Cowboys last week, or else this one might have been eight or nine points. Instead, it's just too easy.
I know the Vikings looked great last week, but the Cowboys looked equally awful. The only thing anyone could have gained from that game was that it's high comedy when Jerry Jones stares deep into the soul of Wade Phillips (and then somehow extends his contract a few days later).
The Saints, meanwhile, are the real deal. Everyone seemed to want to forget that when they clearly let off the gas pedal at the end of the year. Yet their play last week was similar to the way they played against the Patriots earlier this season. Quite simply, if they play that way, there's not a team on the planet that can even come close to beating them. And they've shown a penchant for getting more amped up for the big games.
There's also the crowd. I'd say the noise level in the Superdome will end up causing at least one Brett Favre pick, or one signal mixup that sends Adrian Peterson running straight into Favre. I know Mr. Favre won a significant game in that building once upon a time in a galaxy far away, but not in front of a crowd this crazy.
I like the Saints, and I like them by double-digits. And hey, even if the game stays close or even heads to OT, there's the added comfort of knowing that a Favre pick-six is only one snap away.
Last week: 4-0
Playoffs: 5-3
Regular season: 136-119-3
