Obviously, fantasy football isn't real football, but my opponents in the auctions continually spent around $40 on Shonn Greene, a price worthy of an elite running back.
He's valued at $34 (No.12), ahead of Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jacobs, Matt Forte, and Joseph Addai — to name a few, but he kept going for even more.
LaDainian Tomlinson, they guy he's going to split carries with, on the other hand, is valued at $4 (No. 40), and I was repeatedly was able to get him for a buck in the dregs rounds. After years of him being the most expensive player out there, seeing him priced so low was shocking, but it was more than that.
He's ranked behind all three Bills running backs, and even after Jerome Harrison of Cleveland.
Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and C.J. Spiller are all going to have better years than L.T.?
Tomlinson, apparently, projects to have just 644 yards on 10 carries per game, while Greene looks to get 17-or-so rushes and rack up over 1200 yards.
The idea of splitting carries could be the reason for L.T. pessimism, but Ricky Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Marion Barber are all expected to put up stats barely below those of their counterparts.
Greene looked great in the playoffs last season, but how can everybody expect so much from a guy who touched the ball 15 times in a game only twice last during the regular season, compiling 108 total carries and two touchdowns? And how many passes did Greene catch all season? Zero.
It seems like a leap of faith to expect that Greene will become an elite back, even if he did show promise.
Luckily, the Jets don't need him to be one. He needs to be good, and Tomlinson has to be good too.
Given Tomlinson's experience and proficiency as a pass-catcher, who would you expect to be on the field on third down? Probably L.T. … In goal line situations? Probably Tomlinson again, as he became somewhat of a Jerome Bettis-esque touchdown machine, despite low yardage, in 2009.
And would Jets management really want to run Greene into the ground at age 24 in his second year in the league? It's hard to believe so. Tomlinson's body, and his cheap two-year deal, are far more expendable.
The biggest reason to not be so down on L.T. relative to Greene, however, is that they both play behind the same offensive line. According to Football Outsiders, San Diego's line was slightly below average overall and in their contribution to power rushing — adjusted for replacement value RBs, it was dead last. The Jets' line, on the other hand, ranked sixth in power rushing and allowed the third fewest "stuffed" runs in the league.
Tomlinson may have lost a step, but his problem is not his vision or ability in the open field, it's that he ran up the middle for nothing over and over again in 2009. Behind an elite Jets line, that just won't happen.
Greene may be the future for Rex Ryan's running game, but it's hard to believe that the division of labor in the Jets' backfield would resemble a team like Baltimore in 2009, in which Ray Rice got a little less than double the number of carries that his backups received.
And if the Jets had over 2,700 yards rushing last season, thinking that Tomlinson won't outdo his 730-yard 2009 is just crazy.
Even if he's on the downside of his career, he's definitely worth more than $4 in the fantasy world, and also worth more than $2.6 million in the real world as well.
