That’s why it felt a little strange Monday night when, after Thome blasted his 599th and 600th career home runs, observers started talking about what 600 home runs mean for his Hall of Fame candidacy. As Willie Mays noted in a congratulatory video, Thome now belongs to an exclusive club. No matter how accustomed baseball fans have gotten to the home run, 600 of them is an astronomical number.
With 600 dingers, the logic goes, Thome is a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Agreed. But what that logic implicitly argues is that, had Thome retired after last season with 589 career homers and not reached the arbitrary round-number milestone, he might not have made it to the Hall of Fame. And that’s absurd.
One method Hall of Fame voters claim to use when filling out their ballots is to count the number of times a player finished in the top five of Most Valuable Player voting. Since statistics change so much from era to era, the thinking goes, it’s only fair to judge players within the context of the game at the time they played. This is how Red Sox slugger Jim Rice, with his relatively modest 382 homers and 1,451 RBIs, earned his induction as one of the most singularly dominant players of the late 1970s and 1980s.
Thome, however, does not fare so well by this measurement. Despite some monster seasons — his final season in Cleveland when he batted .304 with a .445 on-base percentage, 52 homers, 118 RBIs and an unusually low (for him) 139 strikeouts stands out — Thome was not considered one of the dominant players in the game. He only placed in the top five of MVP voting once, his first season in Philadelphia, getting the voting bump players often get for being a new face in a big media market.
Thome hit 40 or more home runs six times, 30 or more 12 times, and 52 once. Only once in that span did he lead the league. He was a basher in a basher’s era.
If we can’t fairly judge Thome on stats, and we can’t judge him against his contemporaries, then how can we judge him?
Let’s try using subtraction.
Start at the top of the all-time home run list and subtract homers from the totals of suspected PED users.
No. 7, Sammy Sosa, just ahead of Thome on the list, probably wouldn’t have made it to 609 homers or even 500. Gone.
No. 6, Alex Rodriguez, might not be at 626 homers already if not for alleged chemical assistance, but he probably would have gotten here eventually. He can stay, but we’ll dock him a few dozen bombs.
No. 5, Ken Griffey Jr., is clean as a whistle. Next.
Nos. 4, 3 and 2 are Willie Mays, Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron. Enough said.
No. 1, Barry Bonds, should seem like a shoo-in with 762 career homers. But what if his final seven seasons, when he hit 268 of those homers, hadn’t happened that way? Let’s say Bonds hits half as many homers. Now he’s at 628, and that’s assuming he’s able to continue playing until he’s 42 years old. Assuming he doesn’t he’s at fewer than 500 homers. Hmmm…
The career home run list might look something like this:
1. Aaron (755)
2. Ruth (714)
3. Mays (660)
4. Griffey (630)
5. Thome (589)
6. Frank Robinson (586)
7. A-Rod (560-plus, maybe)
Thome’s in pretty good company as it is, but this puts it in perspective, doesn’t it? Four of the greatest players in history, plus Thome.
Maybe hitting home runs isn’t enough for Thome to belong with those names. Aaron is the greatest run-producer who ever played. Ruth was a lifetime .342 hitter. Mays is the greatest all-around player in history. Griffey took the game to new levels with his athleticism.
It is difficult to do all those things and hit home runs, too.
Thome essentially was a three-outcome hitter: home run, walk, strikeout. He hit more than .300 only three times, only drove in more than 120 runs twice and was never a Gold Glove first baseman.
What Thome did, though, he appears to have done without the aid of performance-enhacing drugs. He should not be measured against sluggers who put up video-game stats or pitchers who injected extra life into their fastballs. He should be measured in what he did, cleanly, as a solid teammate and without a whiff of personal controversy, and walk into the Hall of Fame as soon as he’s eligible.
