That is the question that Ben Cherington and the rest of the Red Sox front office and management must be asking themselves as baseball gets set to open the season's second half.
It's an odd position for the club to be in, no doubt. In fact, there are teams all across the bigs that are faced with the same dilemma. The league's new playoff format — with two wild card teams instead of one — has a lot of teams feeling like they're still in this thing.
Just look at the American League. You have your three division leaders in New York, Chicago and Texas. Then you have the two wild card leaders in Baltimore and Los Angeles. From there, you have six more teams within two games of those final two wild card spots. So technically, there are 11 teams that still think they are very much in contention.
Meanwhile, in the NL, there's a virtual four-way tie for the final playoff spot. There's also just a combined 5 1/2 games separating the three divisional leaders from the second-place teams. In other words, a lot can change between now and October.
And because of that, the trade market will be smaller with this season, even with the July 31 deadline now less than three weeks away. Of course, you could look at that another way as well. If you're one of the teams that can step back and decide that you don't have a chance, you'll have the rest of the league by the, well, you know.
So how does this affect the Red Sox?
As we sit here on July 11, they're one of those teams in limbo. Sure, they're "only" two games out of the final wild card spot, but they also sit at 43-43, tied with Toronto for last place in the AL East and 9 1/2 games back in the division.
The pessimistic fan looks at that sampling of information and pleads with the club to sell off high-priced players with an eye on the future. The optimistic fan throws on his or her rally cap and says a two-game deficit is far from insurmountable while reminding everyone else that a winning streak is right around the corner.
It's not an easy decision. However, it will become increasingly clear within the next week or two what the best course of action for the Red Sox will be. That's because they come out of the break facing one of their most difficult stretches of baseball this season.
Here's what the first week and a half of the season's second half looks like:
July 13-15 at Tampa Bay
July 16-19 versus Chicago
July 20-22 versus Toronto
July 23-25 versus Texas
That's a stretch of 13 games in 13 days against three teams — Tampa Bay, Chicago and Texas — that would be in the playoffs should they start today. That stretch doesn't even include how Boston will wrap up July, when they head to division-leading New York before hosting a resurgent Detroit club.
However, things might get a little dicey if you're going to wait until the last few days of July to make a decision, which is why the next two weeks should go a long way in determining what the future of this team will look like. If they stumble, it may be time to start looking toward 2013. However, if the Red Sox come out of the break with a renewed focus and take that 13-game stretch by storm, they all of a sudden become buyers.
There are other things to consider as well — there always are. First and foremost would be the health of your roster. It's starting to sound like Jacoby Ellsbury could be back when the second half gets under way. It goes without saying as to what he can do. Clay Buchholz is scheduled to jump back into the rotation on Saturday night. It sounded like Will Middlebrooks was close to returning this past weekend, so we can only assume he's on the way back, too. Carl Crawford, barring yet another setback, could be making his return soon as well.
That's a pretty considerable boost to your 25-man roster. Of course, in bringing players like that back — especially the ones being brought back from the disabled list — the club must make a corresponding roster move. Those can come in a multitude of ways, and trades certainly are an option.
You've got two weeks at most to decide what kind of team you are. Are you a team that has a realistic chance to contend — and make some noise, not just make a silly one-game playoff? Or are you a team that will spend the rest of the season wallowing in mediocrity?
Cherington and the rest of the Red Sox need to figure out that out before they can move forward and make any moves, especially any that may shake the foundation of the organization. That won't be an easy decision to make, but it's a decision they're going to have to make very soon.
