It’s impossible to assess the full magnitude of Joel Embiid’s injury, in large because we don’t know how long the Philadelphia 76ers center will be sidelined. He could return in time for the NBA playoffs, he could return during the first round or he could return for the second round.
We just don’t know.
Here’s what we do know: Embiid suffered an orbital fracture that will require surgery and has a concussion. And that’s bad news for the Sixers, even though they already clinched a playoff spot, and a potential game-changer for the rest of the Eastern Conference, including the Boston Celtics.
The Sixers entered Friday in the midst of an eight-game winning streak, improving their overall record to 44-30. Since Christmas Day, the Sixers have the NBA’s third-best record, trailing only the Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors, who own the No. 1 seeds in the Western Conference and Eastern Conference, respectively.
Simply put, the Sixers have been red-hot, with Embiid — already one of the NBA’s best big men — playing a huge role in their success. Losing the 24-year-old could throw Philadelphia’s season into a tailspin if his absence extends into the playoffs, which is quite possible given the two- to four-week timetable ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported Thursday, pending the results of Embiid’s upcoming surgery.
Right now, the Sixers own the No. 4 seed in the East, percentage points ahead of the fifth-seeded Indiana Pacers (45-31) and a half game behind the third-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (45-30). The Raptors and Celtics are cruising toward the conference’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, while the Washington Wizards (41-34), owners of the No. 6 seed, are 3 1/2 games behind the Sixers. In all likelihood, Philadelphia will finish the season with the No. 3, 4 or 5 seed.
While it might not seem like a big deal, especially since the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds play each other in the opening round of the playoffs, there’s actually a significant difference among the three potential outcomes. A No. 3 seed would give the Sixers home-court advantage in the first round, plus home-court advantage in the second round should they advance and the Raptors and/or Celtics fail to advance. A No. 4 seed, meanwhile, comes with home-court advantage in Round 1– but most likely not Round 2 — and a No. 5 seed would force the Sixers to begin the playoffs on the road.
So, what about everyone else?
Philadelphia’s seeding obviously has a trickle-down effect across the Eastern Conference, particularly if the Sixers advance to the second round, where they’d face either the Raptors or Celtics barring a first-round upset.
Let’s assume the Raptors and Celtics finish with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively. If all of the top three seeds advance with the Sixers moving on as the No. 3 seed, then Philadelphia will face Boston in Round 2. If all of the top three seeds advance with the Sixers moving on as the No. 4 or No. 5 seed, then Philadelphia will face Toronto in Round 2. Boston, meanwhile, would face the No. 3 seed, likely Cleveland or Indiana.
That’s a huge difference for the Celtics, as the Cavs — for all their flaws this season — still have the best player on the planet in LeBron James and are eyeing their fourth straight trip to the NBA Finals. The Sixers are a young team on the rise, which could mean some playoff growing pains, especially if their inexperience is exacerbated by having Embiid at less than 100 percent (if at all).
In short, a second-round matchup with Philadelphia — rather than Cleveland — seems like the favorable draw. And one could argue the Celtics even would be better off facing the Sixers than the Pacers, given Boston’s roller-coaster four games against Indiana this season, which were highlighted by an inability to slow down Victor Oladipo.
The problem is, Embiid’s injury will make it more difficult for Philadelphia to lock down the No. 3 seed (and a first-round date with the Wizards, Miami Heat or Milwaukee Bucks plus a potential second-round matchup with the Celtics). Because although the Sixers have a soft remaining schedule, they’ve still looked vulnerable without their All-Star center this season, going 3-8 in the 11 games he’s missed so far. According to Derek Bodner of The Athletic, Philadelphia’s net rating drops to minus-3.9 points per 100 possessions with Embiid off the court, compared to plus-11.6 when he plays.
Basically, Embiid’s injury sucks for Philadelphia, no matter how you slice it. And it also sucks for Celtics fans who want a matchup with the Sixers (or anyone other than the Cavs) in Round 2.
The Cavaliers are hanging onto the No. 3 seed by a thread, but that thread might just be strong enough to last the final 13 days of the NBA regular season, in which case LeBron and Co. could return to TD Garden before the Eastern Conference finals this postseason.
