This might come as a surprise, but Max Kellerman doesn’t sound awfully high on Tom Brady’s chances of adding a seventh Super Bowl title to his résumé.
Kellman and the rest of ESPN’s “First Take” panel on Monday debated who will win another Lombardi Trophy first: Brady or Bill Belichick? Kellerman opted for Belichick, as he believes it all comes down to the coach’s indefinite window for success versus the quarterback’s limited opportunity.
“Belichick will win first,” Kellerman said on ESPN. “First of all, Belichick is much more responsible for the Patriots’ success and the ‘Patriot Way,’ although Brady’s very responsible, if you have to ask. In the NFL, it’s the head coach. It’s the head coach. But beyond that, let’s say you think Brady has a much better chance this year to win ’cause the Bucs are loaded and they got a great coach. They got everything they need. There are 32 teams in the NFL. What do you think the odds are that any one of them wins, even if they’re the odds-on favorite? The Bucs are not the odds-on favorite. They don’t have the best odds to win. They have among the best odds to win. What do you think the odds are they win any given playoff game, right? Even if it’s over 50 percent — 60 percent or 70 percent — you gotta multiple that by the next round. By the time you’re done calculating, maybe they have — if you’re being generous — a 1-in-10 shot of winning the Super Bowl this year. By the way, given Brady’s age and decline, that’s the best shot he’ll ever have.
“Meantime, Belichick’s gonna be live every year. The over/under on the Patriots is, what, 9.5, 8.5 games? They don’t even have a roster! They lost everybody, including the quarterback and the backup quarterback who Brady got shipped out of town. People still think they’re gonna have a winning season. Belichick’s gonna be there every single year. He’s gonna win the Super Bowl first.”
Kellerman very well could be right. The upcoming season might be Brady’s best chance of winning another ring, and there’s a good chance the Bucs won’t even win their division given the New Orleans Saints’ prospects. And while the 2020 campaign isn’t shaping up to be an overly successful one in New England, it might not be terribly long before Belichick builds another legitimate contender.
All of that remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the Brady vs. Belichick debate is still alive and well and surely will be a major talking point throughout the upcoming season.