NFL Week 12 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Banking On Tom Brady Bounce-Back

TB12 has been very valuable following a loss


There’s not much to be thankful for this season when it comes to the best-bet parlay.

If anything, this space has served to remind the betting public how difficult it is to get rich betting parlays. We’re 1-10, which isn’t good, obviously. That being said, we’re just one or two good weeks from making this entire thing look worth it, so we’ll continue to chase that.

Week 12 is where things get turned around. Here’s this week’s best-bet parlay.

(-5) Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers
There’s just a lot going against the Chargers here. Los Angeles has lost three of its last four and has done a whole lot of traveling lately. This is their second trip to the “East Coast” in the last three weeks, which is tricky enough on its own. The Bills, meanwhile, were off last week and have been stewing on a bitter last-second loss to the Cardinals last time out. If Buffalo doesn’t come out with an inspired effort, there are some real issues. The injury bug also has taken a bite out of the Chargers, with cornerback Casey Heyward and linebacker Melvin Ingram being ruled out Friday. The Chargers might also be without running back Kalen Ballage, who has been a good weapon for them in recent weeks.

(+3.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Obviously, we know Tom Brady isn’t in Foxboro anymore, so these numbers should be consumed with a grain of salt. Brady has been a tremendous bounce-back bet, as evidenced by a 45-21 against-the-spread record following a loss. As an underdog in that spot, he’s been even better, going 15-1 ATS. Just this year, Tampa Bay is 3-0 following a loss, winning those games by an average of 22 points. It’s also a good matchup. Teams with strong run defenses have given the Bucs problems this season, forcing them to be one-dimensional, which exposes Brady’s slight fall-off. The Chiefs, however, still don’t have a strong run defense, so all the ingredients are there for the Bucs to keep it within the number.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos UNDER 43.5 points
It’s the lowest total of the week, and we missed the best number — it opened at 45.5 — but it still feels like the right call. The Saints’ biggest strength this season might actually be their defense, which ranks eighth in the league in EPA allowed per play. That unit should certainly hold a floundering Broncos offense in check. Denver has failed to eclipse 21 points in seven of its 10 games and is averaging just 32 points over the last two weeks. Turnovers have been a major issue, as the Broncos have given it away 15 times in six games since their bye. On the other side, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Taysom Hill-led Saints offense sputter a bit on the road in their first game with Hill as starter. Honestly, a defensive score might be the thing that really messes with this number more than anything.

Payout: $100 to win $596
Record: 1-10, down $320

Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images

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