There have been some Nathan Eovaldi opinions over the last couple of years.
“Nathan Eovaldi’s contract has turned into a disaster.”
“Eovaldi hasn’t been anything more than an average fourth starter throughout most of his career, and he’s certainly not worth $17 million per year.”
“At this point, we should just accept Eovaldi for what he is: an oft-injured right-hander whose results — outside of a magical two-week stretch in October of 2018 — never match his stuff.”
In some ways, we’re being slightly unfair to the good scribes, bloggers and talk show hosts of Boston. Eovaldi’s first full season with the Red Sox in 2019 — the first campaign of a four-year, $68 million contract — was a complete disaster. He certainly didn’t look right after a storybook 2018 postseason performance and finished the season with a career-worst 5.99 ERA in 23 appearances and just 12 starts.
It appeared the most feared aspects of re-signing Eovaldi — his injury history, relative inability to log big innings and a lack of real success when he did pitch — were all going to come to fruition. Had that happened, it would have gone down as one of the worst contracts in franchise history. There were even trade whispers including Eovaldi’s name.
Here’s the thing about a four-year deal, though: Four is more than one. Lo and behold, the hard-throwing right-hander has turned things around to the point where he might not be a bargain, but the contract certainly looks in line with market value.
Eovaldi put an ugly start in Toronto behind him Wednesday night, going seven strong, allowing one run and tying a career-high with 10 strikeouts in a must-win victory over the Rays at Fenway Park.
He’s an All-Star who is now 10-7 with a 3.92 ERA on the season. A year ago, he was one of the only bright spots in a historically bad and abbreviated Red Sox season. He has a 3.87 ERA and 1.191 WHIP dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
Dig in deeper, and the numbers across the board not only are good but stack up quite well against the rest of the big leagues.
Here’s where he ranks among the qualified starting pitchers in key stats since the beginning of 2020.
Innings pitched: 181 1/3 (28th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP: 9.23 (18th)
ERA: 3.87 (23rd)
FIP: 3.06 (4th)
WAR: 5.0 (8th)
Eovaldi is currently the 20th highest-paid starting pitcher in the big leagues. That doesn’t feel entirely out of place. He was signed to be a No. 2, and his salary more or less reflects as much. If Chris Sale is healthy, Eovaldi is the most likely No. 2 option in that rotation.
But to contextualize it a little more, take a look at someone like Washington starter Patrick Corbin. The Nationals are paying him north of $24 million per season, and he ranks dead last among all qualified starters in ERA since the beginning of the 2020 season.
This sort of thing is subject to change, of course, especially given the volatility and injury issues we’ve seen from Eovaldi in his career. But for now, a move that was maligned at the time (well, not by everyone) and after Year 1, it’s looking more and more like a win for Boston.
