Weekend Football Picks: Steelers Should Keep It Close Against Buffalo

Here are Sam's five football picks this weekend


The first full weekend of college and professional football finally is here.

If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the picks I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.

Let’s go to work.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, O/U 48.5)
Steelers +6.5

I can’t justify the spread being this high in a game that should be a war in the trenches. Pittsburgh’s defensive front is never easy to deal with and they’ve had a long offseason to rest up and be ready for the season opener. Don’t expect to see that Steelers team that ran out of gas down the stretch. The Bills are an overvalued football team coming off last season’s AFC Championship appearance and the public bettors can’t get enough Buffalo. I’ll gladly take the points.

Kansas at Coastal Carolina (-25.5, O/U 52)
Coastal Carolina -25.5

This one could get ugly. There’s lots of positivity around the Jayhawks program after KU snapped a 13-game losing streak with a victory over South Dakota. Yawn. Truth be told, this is a total mismatch in every single way. Coastal Carolina has its sights set on a New Year’s Six bowl while Kansas entered the 2021 campaign with a season win total of O/U 1.5. These are two teams that are moving in opposite directions and there’s a reason Coastal is laying 25.5 when the line was Kansas -6 last year. Lay the wood.

South Alabama (-14, O/U 48) at Bowling Green
South Alabama -14

The Jaguars are one of the better teams you’ve probably never heard of. They railroaded Southern Miss 31-7 in head coach Kane Wommack’s debut and now they hit the highway to face just an awful Bowling Green squad. Jags quarterback Jake Bentley — yes, the former South Carolina QB — torched the Eagles for 269 yards and two touchdowns on 17-of-22 passing last week and his life should be even easier Saturday. I have a feeling -14 won’t be available much longer either.

Seattle Seahawks (-3, O/U 49.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Colts +3

This line has already moved six points since the spring and public bettors are still lining up to lay three points with Seattle. That’s right, Indianapolis opened up as a three-point favorite and now the Colts are catching three on their home turf. Lots of that money showed for the Seahawks when it looked like quarterback Carson Wentz and offensive line anchor Quenton Nelson were both going to miss the opener, but all signs point to them both playing. I love Frank Reich catching points and think Indy will have every opportunity to survive Russell Wilson’s magic show and win outright.

Good luck.

Sam’s Picks
Steelers +6.5 (-110)
Coastal Carolina -25.5 (-110)
South Alabama -14 (-110)
Colts +3 (-110)

Iowa State -4 (-110) from Tuesday*

RECORD: (48-44, -0.2)

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