The Patriots defense is starting to give off 2019 vibes.
With New England suffering back-to-back losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills, it's fair to wonder whether the Patriots defense really is as good as it looked during the seven-game win streak. Sunday's performance against Buffalo was especially concerning, with a Bill Belichick-coached defense failing to force a punt for the first time ever.
The Bills racked up 428 total yards, converted six of 12 third-down attempts and three of four fourth-down tries, committed zero turnovers and made it to the red zone on all drives in which they weren't just running out the clock. And Buffalo did it without slot receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, both of whom landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list before gameday. Instead, fill-in slot wideout Isaiah McKenzie, who was inactive for the first Patriots-Bills game this season, went off for 11 catches, 125 yards and a touchdown.
The Patriots defense looked slow, couldn't generate any meaningful pressure and suffered from poor execution throughout the game.
Is New England's defense that bad? No, and there aren't many teams that are able to do what the Bills do on offense. However, the performance served as confirmation for those who have believed that, similar to what happened in 2019, the Patriots defense would struggle once it faced an explosive, capable offense led by a top-tier quarterback.
In 2019, New England got out to an 8-0 start, allowing a preposterously low 8.7 points per game (including two shutouts) while facing the following quarterbacks:
-- Ben Roethlisberger, whom we now know had reached the proverbial cliff.
-- A combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen.
-- Something named Luke Falk.
-- Rookie-year Josh Allen, who was terrible.
-- Career-backup Colt McCoy.
-- Rookie-year Daniel Jones, who was terrible.
-- Sam Darnold, who still can't live down his infamous "seeing ghosts" performance.
-- Baker Mayfield, who was being coached by Freddie Kitchens.
Those "Boogeymen" got smoked in a Week 9 loss to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, ultimately going 4-4 in their final eight games -- with Deshaun Watson and Fitzpatrick carving them up along the way -- before suffering a first-round playoff loss to the Tennessee Titans. Tom Brady packed his bags and left for Tampa Bay a couple of months later.
That defense wasn't necessarily exposed for being bad. It was an undeniably good defense. However, it was long in the tooth, soft on the defensive line and, perhaps most problematically, slow at linebacker. Opposing offenses eventually realized they could spread the Patriots defense out, making it easier to identify blitzers and, thus, maintain a clean pocket and pick apart the secondary.
The 2021 group feels eerily similar.
The concerns were there before the winning streak. There are eight players seeing significant time in this defense who were part of the 2019 group, including Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, who were added via free agency and early-season trade, respectively. All of them now are two years older, with Van Noy, Collins, Lawrence Guy, Dont'a Hightower and Devin McCourty all over 30 years old.
The defense was unable to stop the run and get off the field in big spots early in the season. When Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense put up 567 yards in Week 6, it looked like 2019 all over again -- if not worse.
Then New England won seven straight games, giving up 10 points per game (including one shutout) while facing the following quarterbacks:
-- A combination of Mike White and Zach Wilson (White actually was decent).
-- Justin Herbert, who is great but clearly can't figure out the Patriots.
-- Darnold, whose miserable game made Robby Anderson yell at him.
-- Mayfield, who, at this point, is what he is: just OK.
-- Matt Ryan and the comically undermanned Falcons offense.
-- Ryan Tannehill and the equally undermanned Titans, who actually moved the ball at times.
-- Allen and the Bills, who, like the Patriots, were impacted by the awful weather.
In hindsight, we should've known that Van Noy's "Boogeymen"-themed tweet directed at Wilson and the Jets wouldn't age well.
In their last three losses (Week 6 against Dallas, Week 15 against Indy and Week 16 against Buffalo), the Patriots defense has struggled with the same issues we pointed out about the 2019 group. The Cowboys were too fast and talented; the Colts found success on the ground, especially when it mattered most; the Bills won the trench war, spread New England out and picked apart the secondary.
If the Patriots make the playoffs and face similar offenses -- the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Titans, if they're healthy, all come to mind -- it's hard to envision New England keeping the score low. Nevermind the fact that one of the oldest rosters in football might have to play on wild card weekend after enduring a 17-game schedule.
Christian Barmore and Matthew Judon, who has fallen off considerably over the last four weeks, must return to their early season forms. Teams are starting to take them out of games, and the Patriots are struggling to find pressure elsewhere.
Still, it's not all doom and gloom for the Patriots. This Sunday's matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars could serve as a get-right game, and New England should match up well with the red-hot Miami Dolphins in the regular-season finale. Building momentum over the final two games could be crucial in going on a long playoff run, of which this team still capable.
But the Patriots, led by a rookie quarterback who still is figuring things out, only will go as far as their defense takes them. Right now, they don't look up to the challenge.
