Most fans and experts believe the Patriots must add talent at receiver this offseason. And, judging from their activity at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine, the Patriots themselves likely agree with that assessment.
There are a few ways for New England to accomplish that goal. It could use one of its six picks (including 21st overall) in the draft, utilize the trade market or find a player in the free agency bargain aisle — a staple of Patriots economics.
One thing Bill Belichick likely won’t do — and you could argue shouldn’t do — is pay through the nose for a free agent receiver.
Players such as Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Allen Robinson and, perhaps, Odell Beckham Jr. all figure to land rich contracts this spring. And while all of them eventually could justify those deals, evidence suggests teams, including the Patriots, should be wary of throwing big money at receivers in free agency.
As pointed out by Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus, these are the largest contracts, in terms of total dollars, since 2016 for receivers signing with new teams:
— Kenny Golladay, $72 million (New York Giants)
— Sammy Watkins, $48 million (Kansas City Chiefs)
— Pierre Garcon, $47.5 million (San Francisco 49ers)
— Tyrell Williams, $44.3 million (Las Vegas Raiders)
— Allen Robinson, $42 million (Chicago Bears)
— Paul Richardson, $40 million (Washington Commanders)
— Marvin Jones, $40 million (Detroit Lions)
— Robert Woods, $39 million (Los Angeles Rams)
— Golden Tate, $37.5 million (New York Giants)
— Corey Davis, $37.5 million (New York Jets)
— Adam Humphries, $36 million (Tennessee Titans)
(Note: This list would look slightly different if it were based on guaranteed money, which is what teams really are on the hook for.)
Some of those players, such as Robinson and Woods, turned into big contributors for their new teams and largely lived up to the contracts. But others were totally different stories. Golladay was especially disappointing his first year in New York, catching only 37 passes for 521 yards and zero touchdowns in 2021.
The receivers don’t deserve all of the blame. Certain offensive schemes aren’t good fits for certain receivers — that’s especially true in New England — and poor quarterback play can make life difficult for any wideout. But those points only underscore the inherent risks in signing pass-catchers to lucrative contracts, which is to say nothing of injury concerns.
The list also shows how rare it is for in-prime receivers, such as Adams and Godwin, to hit the open market. Within a matter of weeks, Adams almost certainly will rank above Golladay, and Godwin likely will be near the top as well. We’ll see what happens with Amari Cooper, who reportedly could be released in the near future.
Should the Patriots pounce on this rare opportunity? It’s debatable, especially when you factor in the pressing needs on New England’s defense. But their history of spending for receivers, along with their current salary cap situation, indicates Patriots fans shouldn’t get their hopes up.
Here are the eight richest contracts the Patriots have given out to free agent wideouts:
— Danny Amendola, $28.5 million (2013)
— Nelson Agholor, $22 million (2021)
— Wes Welker, $18.1 million (2007)
— Kendrick Bourne, $15 million (2021)
— Chris Hogan, $12 million (2016)
— Brandon Lloyd, $12 million (2012)
— Antonio Brown, $10.5 million (2019)
— Brandon LaFell, $9 million (2014)
(Note: We left Donte Stallworth and his six-year, $33.1 million contract from 2007 off this list, as the opt-outs and $3.3 million guaranteed make it a unique deal.)
If nothing else, this list indicates the Patriots have found their sweet spot with free agent receivers. The jury is out on Agholor, and Brown obviously was a disaster, but the rest of the players provided solid value, if not better. Even LaFell, who was released after his second season in New England, was a key contributor (74 catches, 953 yards and seven TDs) on the Super Bowl XLIX-winning team.
Of course, the NFL is changing, and you could argue the Patriots must be atypically aggressive in adding receiver talent. Mac Jones might be a franchise quarterback, but he currently doesn’t have the firepower to compete with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, among others.
However, you also could argue that such a move would be reactionary and prisoner-of-the-moment material. New England should use other methods to bolster its offense — which ranked sixth in score this season — rather than handcuff it to a pricey receiver for the next few years.
Recent history suggests the Patriots will, and should, avoid such a scenario.
