The New England Patriots got back into the win column with a solid showing against the New York Jets on Sunday. That may not mean much in the grand scheme of things, however.
As the NFL approaches Week 9, the strengths and weaknesses for each team have displayed themselves. While there is always room for improvement, we pretty much know what we need to know about each franchise. According to one metric, that isn’t good news for the Patriots.
Pro Football Focus’ Timo Riske put together a pair of graphics displaying each team’s weighted expected points added on both sides of the ball, and how those stack up against future opponents. The Patriots ranked highly (seventh) in defensive EPA and lowly (23rd) in offensive EPA. When stacking that up against future opponents, it’s clear New England has one of the league’s toughing remaining schedules.
The crux of that graphic is this, to rank favorably in terms of strength of schedule, the Patriots would have to be scheduled to play some of the NFL’s worst defenses. That is not the case.
Here is where New England’s upcoming opponents rank in scoring defense.
Indianapolis Colts: 8th
New York Jets: 12th
Minnesota Vikings: 14th
Buffalo Bills: 1st
Arizona Cardinals: 29th
Las Vegas Raiders: 25th
Cincinnati Bengals: 6th
Miami Dolphins: 22nd
Two of those games will come against the top rated Bills, while the Patriots won’t have the luxury of playing the Cardinals, Raiders or Dolphins until late-December and early-January.
Obviously, the numbers don’t prove everything, and the flip side of the coin (New England’s defense) is good enough to change the outcomes of game. It just doesn’t look great on paper for a team who has done more disappointing than impressing this season.
