The New England Patriots got busy checking boxes on their offseason wish list, revamping their coaching staff in preparation for a critical 2023 campaign.
But what’s next?
Well, according to the NFL calendar, the answer to that question is free agency.
The new NFL league year kicks off March 15, marking the official start of free agency. New England is expected to have more than $32 million to spend when the signing period kicks off, per Patriots cap guru Miguel Benzan, giving them an opportunity to make a splash signing or two if they so please.
Pro Football Focus believes they will, predicting that a pair of top free agents will sign with the Patriots this offseason. Here are some blurbs on those predictions.
Jamel Dean, CB
New England let J.C. Jackson walk in free agency last offseason, and in this scenario they sign a younger player who can help them play more press-man coverage on the outside, something they deviated from in 2022 compared to prior seasons.
The Patriots ranked 18th in press coverage grade for their outside cornerbacks last season with a 63.0 mark, whereas Dean’s 79.7 grade ranked third among cornerbacks with at least 100 press coverage snaps.
Dean, who recorded 57 tackles and two interceptions with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is an interesting choice for the Patriots, as he’s likely going to come at a similar cost to that of Jonathan Jones. Both corners moved from nickel roles to the outside in 2022, sharing similar levels of success. Would the Patriots choose Dean over Jones if the cost is similar?
Orlando Brown Jr.
It’s possible the Chiefs place a second consecutive franchise tag on Brown and/or work out a multi-year deal, but Patrick Mahomes’ elite ability to not let pressures become sacks makes it unnecessary to make a top-of-market investment on the blindside.
Brown didn’t really do much to change his perception this year; he is a good but not great tackle. New England has been aggressive in free agency in recent years and is desperate for help at the position, though. Brown earned a 60.0-plus pass-blocking grade in every 2022 contest from Week 5 on, with 11 grades above 70.0 over the stretch. He’d be a massive addition to this Patriots tackle group.
This is another interesting choice from PFF, who have the Patriots over-extending for a tackle who likely won’t be worth his price tag. Brown is fine, just as PFF said, but the other options on the table for New England (Mike McGlinchey, Jawaan Taylor, Kaleb McGary) feel like they could be had on better valued deals. This move would feel similar to that of the Jonnu Smith/Hunter Henry contracts in 2021 — panicky overpays.
