Ugly Mac Jones Trend Reveals Itself In Patriots’ Search For Competence

The Patriots essentially ran out of options in their effort to get off the schneid against the Raiders in Week 6.

New England exclusively used a quick-hitter passing attack throughout the majority of the game, and though it eventually became a loss, the Patriots' offense looked somewhat competent throughout the game.

Not good, but competent.

In a stark contrast from the previous two weeks, the Patriots offense actually scored not just one, but two touchdowns. The unit nearly matched its total scoring output from the previous three games (18 points), putting 17 points on the board against an admittedly mid Raiders defense. New England was able to move the ball by allowing playmakers like Kendrick Bourne to create after the catch, with Mac Jones' average depth of target sitting at just 5.2 yards. They certainly didn't look good when he was allowed to sling it, so they kept things simple.

I’m rewatching Patriots vs. Raiders and the offense is uglier than you remember.

Mac Jones had a tough day throwing it deep, finishing 0/4 on passes that traveled 15+ yards through the air - including the interception and DeVante Parker’s drop. pic.twitter.com/fKjwxpTySO

— Keagan Stiefel (@KeaganStiefel) October 18, 2023

As they move forward, the Patriots could continue to take a similar approach with the likes of Bourne, Demario Douglas and ... well, that's about it. Though it certainly isn't a good thing, New England's best chance at success seems to be taking the ball out of Jones' hands, with a trend that has lasted the length of his career showing itself in Week 6.

We talked about Jones' average depth of target (ADOT) against the Raiders being low, but that usually has been a successful strategy for the Patriots. New England has a 17-14 record when Jones' ADOT is below 10 yards, and is 6-3 when it's kept below six yards. When he averages more than 10 yards per throw, the Patriots are 0-5.

If you want to take a simplified, yet cynical view, the Patriots are at their best when keeping Jones as far away from contributing as possible.

The idea behind drafting Jones, for many, was that he wouldn't actively lose games. There were some who said he'd be like Kirk Cousins, which was supposed to be enough for the Patriots to win. It was in the beginning, but something has changed.

The Minnesota Vikings have a similar record to that of the Patriots (18-15) when their quarterback's ADOT sits below 10 yards, but are 5-1 when Cousins averages more than 10 yards per throw in the last three seasons. In this comparison, Cousins is a cut above.

Jared Goff is 6-1 in his career when his ADOT exceeds 10 yards. Derek Carr is 7-2. Ryan Tannehill is 4-1 in the last three seasons. These are the guys that Jones was supposed to be better than, and that hasn't happened.

In making an offseason change at offensive coordinator, there was an expectation that the offense would look a bit more advanced than the one New England ran under Matt Patricia. It hasn't, though. The Patriots lack a presence in the intermediate passing game, with Jakobi Meyers' departure looming large. That has led to longer developing plays, and basic slants, screens and pops.

The blame can't entirely be placed on Jones, obviously. It's hard to make those throws when someone is breathing down your neck every time you drop back to pass. The Patriots' offensive line has been bad, and it has contributed to a pretty drastic change in pocket presence for the QB.

This isn't a one-person problem. There are a number of people at One Patriot Place who are partly at fault for what is currently going on with their football team. In the NFL, though, the blame always comes back to one person: the quarterback.