People love betting long shots, and the Masters is no different, but when it comes to golf’s first major of the season, you have to know what you’re getting into.
It shouldn’t come as much surprise that the best players typically win the Masters. For starters, elite players typically win elite events. That’s even more pronounced at a tournament like the Masters, though, because of the limited field. Eighty-nine players will tee it up this weekend at Augusta National Golf Club, and that includes the amateurs and older former champions who have virtually no shot to win. So, basically, you’re looking at 20 or 30 players who can really win the tournament, and those guys all have the shortest odds.
That’s not to say it can’t happen, though.
Jon Rahm is the defending champion, and he slipped on the green jacket after entering the tournament at a relatively short 9-1. Scottie Scheffler the year before entered at shorter than 20-1. However, in the last handful of years, champions like Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia have won it with longer odds.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s dig into some long shots (60-1 or longer) who could theoretically win the Masters this week.
Max Homa (60-1, FanDuel Sportsbook)
He’s in the wilderness right now, struggling to find some consistency. Homa also has a very poor majors record compared to his skill set. He did, however, get his first top-10 finish at a major to close out the 2023 season at The Open Championship. Perhaps he’s figured it out. He was far more popular last year where he went off 32-1 at the Masters, and now it seems like the market has corrected. Homa is too good to never put it together, and he has some wins against big-boy fields, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see it all come together. Getting it at 60-1 would be nice.
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Brian Harman (75-1, FanDuel)
Harman is a proverbial box-checker. Left-handers typically play well at Augusta National (see: Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson), so that’s a check. He has some success at majors, winning The Open Championship last year after a sixth-place finish the year before and a second-place finish at a U.S. Open. The Masters history is mixed with a pair of consecutive missed cuts, but he did finish 12th in 2021. He can get hot with the putter. He even has the good local vibes as a Georgia boy.
Patrick Reed (80-1, FanDuel)
Reed already has a green jacket, so he can win here. We know that. It’s no surprise to learn he’s a very good course fit. This Masters-specific shot-level course fit story was illuminating, with the numbers pointing to Reed being among the players whose game benefits the most at Augusta National. In addition to the win in 2018, he has three top-10 finishes in his last four Masters starts. No one really likes him, so no one really bets him, giving some value to this number.
J.T. Poston (350-1, FanDuel)
Time for a major dart throw. Poston is really, really talented, and he’s having a nice season. He finished tied for fifth at The Sentry at tied for 10th at The Genesis Invitational. Those two courses have plenty of similarities to Augusta Nationals in terms of layout and how they play. The major record is ? not great. But he was competitive last year, making three of four cuts and finishing no worse than 41st when he got to the weekend. Perhaps a placement bet makes more sense, but having a 350-1 ticket on Sunday could make for a good little cashout even if he’s sniffing the top of the leaderboard.
