As the preseason unfolds and throughout the regular slate, I will tell you those players I like and those I don't. But "like" and "dislike" is all relative, so to put things in context, I provide each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position. These ADPs are based on hundreds of recent fantasy drafts, courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.
"Upgrades" means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.
Upgrades
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (ADP: 15.4). Last year, Johnson was in a terrible situation — the Lions quarterback play was sub-par and their team was historically bad. Yet Johnson was still fantasy's third-best wideout, posting 1,331 yards and 14 TDs. Entering his third season (often the magical, breakout season for WRs), Johnson should be even better, and the Lions QB play cannot be any worse (particularly if Matthew Stafford is half as good as the Lions coaches seem to think). I'd gladly take Johnson with my first-round pick, and ensure I have a stud to play every week, rather than roll the dice on RBs who have some question marks surrounding them, e.g. LaDainian Tomlinson (ADP: 6.46) and Marion Barber (ADP: 15.4). While I like Andre Johnson (ADP: 10.6), he doesn't get nearly enough red zone targets to justify taking him ahead of Megatron.
Greg Olsen, TE, Bears (ADP: 80). I cannot overstate the extent to which I love Olsen this year. Entering his third season, with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball, Olsen is about to explode. With the QB issues in Tampa, there is absolutely no way I'd draft Kellen Winslow (ADP: 75) before Olsen. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: 56) and Dallas Clark (ADP: 63) are good TEs, but their teams have too many other weapons to justify taking them before Olsen, much less two rounds before. At the end of 2009, expect Olsen to be right there with Jason Witten (ADP: 42) and Antonio Gates (ADP: 52), making Olsen one of the best bargains in fantasy football if you get him anywhere near his current ADP of 80.
No Change
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers (ADP: 23). I am writing about Smith, but it really applies to all veteran players: preseason injuries mean next to nothing. If an injury is significant, and will carry into the regular season, then it's fine to downgrade a player. But the regular season is still a month away, so if an established star like Smith is going to miss most or all of the preseason, I don't care. As long as he will be healthy by Week 1, that's all that matters.
Downgrades
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 3.14). MJD is currently being drafted third overall on average. I certainly understand why, with Fred Taylor out of the picture, but I'd be nervous to take him that high. Jones-Drew has never carried a full load before and, as we saw last season with Marion Barber, projecting part-time stats to a full-time role often doesn't work. Also, Jack Del Rio has always liked his RBs splitting carries, and the only other RB on the Jags roster with significant NFL experience is FB Greg Jones. Jones is a short-yardage guy, so if the Jags time-share again, it would probably be with someone like Jones taking over the short-yardage and goal-line duties. Yes, I'm speculating a bit, but how else are they going to give MJD a breather? Jones can't do anything but the short-yardage stuff, and Alvin Pearman and Chauncey Washington seem unlikely to be given significant roles. With my third overall pick, I'd want a safe, sure-fire stud, and for me, that's Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 7.32).
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (ADP: 6.46). LT sixth overall? Wow. Fantasy owners must be thinking that it's 2006? Tomlinson's YPC fell all the way to 3.8 in 2008, and after years of staying healthy, he's been injured two postseasons in a row. The YPC and injury issues are no accident — that's what happens when a RB approaches age 30 (which LT just turned in June). Also, I'm not going to overstate the extent to which Darren Sproles will be used (he's still just a change of pace back). But Sproles was given the franchise tag for a reason. He will eat into LT's production, even if LT stays healthy.
