I have to start with a general football note because if we don't understand the game like experts should, we can't properly assess player and team performance.
In the NFL this weekend, three teams (Titans, Cowboys, Dolphins) that rushed for over 200 yards lost and this is supposed to be the most shocking thing ever. How can so many so thoroughly fail to understand a game that they all spend so much time watching and following?
Those who followed the league here last year know that the teams that had the higher sack-adjusted YPA in the game than their opponents, not looking at anything else, won 76 percent of games. It's been between 75 and 80 percent for at least 45 years running.
The Titans were out-passed by Matt Schaub and the Texans 9.1 to 6.2, the Cowboys 8.7 to 4.4 by the Giants and the Dolphins 12.3 to 4.7 by the Colts. Those are passing game massacres. If those losing teams didn't run so obscenely well, they would have lost by two TDs each.
Net-YPA was, is and will forever be the way you win. It was the way that Vince Lombardi's Packers teams won those early Super Bowls. Look it up if you don't believe me.
Another myth is that you need to run well to set up play action. If that's the case, explain the Colts using play action to key the 80-yard TD to Dallas Clark on the game's first snap when they haven't run the ball well for two years.
Let's look at the offenses and defenses that are doing the best jobs in the passing game, starting on offense, courtesy of our Fantasy Football Power Rankings.
The big surprise is the Giants, who are third best. What about their novice receivers and Eli Manning's inability to elevate them because he's not as good as Peyton? Are the receivers a lot better or is Eli now very good at all times and not just in two-minute drills? My guess is that it's a little of both. But I need more data.
Staying in New York, Mark Sanchez has the Jets sixth-best after his first two starts as a true rookie. We liked the Bills a lot here all summer until they put a scare in us by firing their offensive coordinator. But that first take seems warranted, as Trent Edwards has Buffalo ranking eighth.
Denver is seventh, but a lot of that is that fluke TD at the end of the Bengals game, so ignore this ranking; more reflective of reality for them is their 32nd (last) ranking in red zone possessions.
Offenses I'm more worried about than I though I'd be include the Vikings (32nd) and Packers (24th). My concern with the Packers is that they can't keep Aaron Rodgers upright (last in sack percentage allowed).
Pass defenses to avoid based on early results (league best, in order): the Jets, Colts, Vikings, Seahawks, Panthers and Eagles. But all of these leaders seem matchup/situation-based except the Jets, who have smothered the elite passing attacks of Houston and New England.
The easiest defenses to pass on so far: Tampa Bay, Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Detroit. There are some brand names in there. But the Bucs have changed their Cover 2 approach. Detroit is, well, Detroit. Miami was bad against the pass last year. We need more data on the Ravens and Titans, but I would not go out of my way right now to avoid them.
No let's make some related recommendations.
Buy
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: He's screened now due to having no TDs. Those are coming. Expect 80-1,100-8 as Mark Sanchez keeps getting even better throughout the season.
Mario Manningham, WR, Giants: This cat is out of the bag. You can't pay for what he's done, but you won't have to as he's on free agent wires in most leagues this week. Last call though for him.
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Many of his owners benched him last week. Now they are mad at him again for their own poor judgment. He's a top seven QB and probably can be had more cheaply.
Hold
Ravens Defense: Philip Rivers and the San Diego receivers are monsters and will give all pass defenses lots of trouble.
Sell
Donald Driver, WR, Packers: Someone has to go on the block when you can't protect the quarterback and Driver has the lowest upside by far of the few Packers coming off good weeks.
Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings: Percy Harvin is the No. 1 target in the passing game.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos: The coaching staff is still sending messages by benching him in the second quarter and promising to do more of the same for depth reasons.
Frank Gore, RB, Niners: You generally see limited touches when your quarterback isn't passing well and moving the chains. Your other option is to continue to bank on 80-yard TD runs.
