NCAA Tournament Odds: Why Betting Against Top Seeds Isn’t Worst Idea

A No. 16 seed has never upset a No. 1 seed at the NCAA Tournament, but the Hampton Pirates hope to change that when they face the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday as big 23 1/2-point underdogs at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

First-round meetings between No. 1 and No. 16 seeds have traditionally been lopsided affairs, with the top seed claiming double-digit victories in each of the last six heading into Thursday afternoon’s Pirates vs. Cavaliers betting matchup at PNC Arena.

But it has been the No. 16 seeds that have rewarded bettors in recent years, going 11-6 ATS in the last 17 matchups between the seeds dating back to the 2011 NCAA Tournament, according to data compiled by OddsShark.com.

No. 15 seeds have fared marginally better at the Big Dance, claiming straight-up victories over No. 2 seeds on three occasions since 2012 following a 12-year drought, and paying off ATS in three of four contests last year.

This year, the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners will look to end a five-game ATS losing streak when they face the No. 15 California State-Bakersfield Roadrunners as 13 1/2-point favorites in their West Region matchup.

The Sooners are 2-9 ATS over their past 11 games and just 4-4 ATS in their last eight as double-digit chalk, while the Roadrunners ride a six-game SU win streak into their first March Madness appearance.

Conversely, the No. 2 Xavier Musketeers face a squad with a much longer March Madness history when they take on No. 15 Weber State as 13-point chalk at the sportsbooks.

The Musketeers’ hopes for a Big East Tournament crown were dashed with an 87-83 loss to Seton Hall, their second loss to the Pirates in under two weeks, while the Wildcats look to end a four-game SU losing streak at the tournament dating back to 1999, but stayed within 10 points of tournament opponents in three of those contests.

Things tighten up considerably in matchups between No. 5 and No. 12 seeds, with No. 12 coming out on top in nine of the last 14 meetings, going 9-4-1 ATS during that stretch, while No. 11 seeds are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in their nine most recent contests against No. 6 seeds, including a pair of wins last year.

One of this year’s most closely watched No. 6/No. 11 matchups features a surprising Seton Hall squad battling No. 11 Gonzaga on Thursday in a game pegged as a pick’em at the online sportsbooks. The West Coast Conference champion Bulldogs are undefeated in five, SU and ATS, while the Pirates are 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, in their past 14 games.

Thumbnail photo via Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports Images