NFL Week 11 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Puts Stock In Tua Tagovailoa’s Upstart Dolphins

We deserve a good break after last week


November 20, 2020

We are not friends with Kliff Kingsbury at the moment.

That sentiment is likely shared by bettors across the football world after the Arizona Cardinals head coach’s decision to take a knee following an improbable Hail Mary touchdown to beat the Buffalo Bills.

Had Kingsbury just kicked the extra point, the Cardinals would have won by three, covered the 2.5-point spread and given us the win for the Week 10 best-bet parlay. C’mon Kliff.

Anyway, back on the horse for Week 11. Perhaps we can cash in before the holiday season begins in earnest.

Here’s the Week 11 best-bet parlay.

(-3.5) Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
One thing the Dolphins do very well is they turn takeaways into points. Miami is averaging a touchdown per game off turnovers, which ranks fifth in the NFL. That’s bad news for Denver, which currently ranks dead last in the league in giveaways. We don’t know for sure who will be under center for the Broncos, but the fact that Drew Lock — who has thrown 11 picks in his last six games — is the quarterback Denver has atop the depth chart tells you all you need to know. It’s a little concerning to be on the public side of a rookie quarterback on the road (in Denver at altitude, no less), but it’s hard to make a case for the Broncos here.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings OVER 48.5 points
The Vikings have faced two “good” defenses this season: Indianapolis and Chicago. They’ve scored 30 points combined in those two games. In every other game, though, it’s been a bit of a free-for-all, averaging just under 29 points in those contests. Now, they face a Cowboys defense that might break all the wrong kinds of records for being bad. Dallas allows 5.0 yards per carry (30th) and has the eighth-most missed tackles. Trying to stop a rushing attack that has gained more than half of its yards after contact might be a slight issue. For all of Mike McCarthy’s issues this year, the Cowboys head coach has been historically good off the bye, so expect that offense to have a few things for his old foe Mike Zimmer, especially with Andy Dalton expected to return. Feels like a shootout.

(-1.5) Washington Football Team vs. Cincinnati Bengals
It is quite clear where the Bengals should spend their 2021 draft capital: on the offensive line for Joe Burrow protection. Only Carson Wentz has been sacked more than Joe Burrow this season, and it’s starting to take its toll. Burrow has posted a sub-90 passer rating over his last five games, a stretch in which Cincinnati has gone 1-4. For all of Washington’s faults, the Football Team does rush the passer well (top 10 in pressure rate). The Bengals’ defense, meanwhile, is all kinds of banged up, especially in the secondary. It looks like another chance for Alex Smith to sling it around like he did a week ago when he completed 38 of 55 passes for 390 yards with seven different pass-catchers hauling it at least four receptions.

Payout: $100 to win $595
Record: 1-9 (down $220)

Thumbnail photo via Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports Images

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