Thanks to the WGC Match Play tournament, March Madness just isn’t for the NCAA Tournament.
After a one-year COVID-19 hiatus, match play returns to Austin Country Club this week in one of the most unique tournaments on the PGA Tour. The match play aspect of things makes it a little trickier to handicap, but we’ll try our best with our betting preview and full WGC Match Play 2021 picks for each group and the bracket.
DEFENDING CHAMPION: Kevin Kisner (2019)
THE COURSE — Austin Country Club
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,108
FORMAT: It’s a 64-player field based on World Golf rankings, and the field is then divided into 16 four-player groups. On Wednesday through Thursday, the groups will play round-robin matches among their groups. Winners get one point, and a tie is worth a half-point. The winner of each group moves onto the 16-player, single-elimination bracket with seeding based on group number. For example, if Dustin Johnson wins Group 1, he’d face the winner of Group 16 in the round of 16.
BRACKET:
LEFT SIDE OF BRACKET PICKS
(All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Group 1: Kevin Na (+320 to win group)
It’s possible Dustin Johnson blitzes the group like he did as a 1-seed in 2016, winning all of his matches en route to the title. But the streaky Na has a pretty strong record in match play, advancing to at least the round of 16 in two of his last three appearances.
Group 16: Russell Henley (+250)
Sungjae Im, the top seed in this group, hasn’t been able to put it all together lately, while Henley comes in off a third-place finish last year with solid past success at Pete Dye.
Group 8: Sergio Garcia (+200)
This is basically a European Ryder Cup practice. Garcia’s past performance paired with Dye success is too much to ignore. He’s racked up seven top-10 finishes at the WGC Match Play, and he’s advanced to the round of 16 in his last two starts.
Group 9: Paul Casey (+145)
No one comes in with finer form than Casey, finishing no worse than 12th in his last six starts. He’s reached the round of 16 seven times here and is no stranger to match play with three Ryder Cup appearances.
Group 4: Max Homa (+300)
This is a fascinating group with Homa and Collin Morikawa, two college teammates at Cal, fighting for the chance to advance. Let’s roll with Homa, who — before his missed cut at the Players — finished seventh, first, 22nd and 10th in his last four tournaments.
Group 13: Abe Ancer (+230)
This pick admittedly is based on Ancer’s 21-under showing at the RBC Heritage (a Dye track) and the fact he has match-play experience at the Presidents Cup wher he held his own against Tiger Woods in 2019.
Group 5: Bryson DeChambeau (+105)
He’s obviously playing well and has proved his style can work at any course. Also feels like he’d embrace playing a bully-ball style in match play.
Group 12: Tony Finau (+150)
Will Zalatoris, a former junior-am champion, is tempting given his match play past. But Finau is the pick here, in large part just because we want to see a showdown with Bryson in the next round.
RIGHT SIDE OF BRACKET PICKS
Group 2: Matt Kuchar (+550)
This is the group of death. Kisner is the defending champ with a second-place finish. Matt Kuchar has a win, runner-up, third-place finish and four other finishes of round of 16 or better. Louis Oosthuizen has a second-place finish and four trips to the round of 16. And Justin Thomas might be the best player in the world. Kuchar, who has great success on Dye courses, gets through which also is the biggest payday despite rough form lately.
Group 15: Jordan Spieth (+175)
Despite being the lowest seed, Spieth is the betting favorite. He’s playing well, has a good draw, and match play sets up well for him. A big number doesn’t doom his tournament — it’s just a lost hole. The good far outweighs the bad.
Group 10: Patrick Cantlay (+125)
Take out The Players, and Cantlay has cleaned up at Dye courses. Other than the missed cut, he’s finished no worse than 17th (the Masters) since his win at the Zozo.
Group 7: Patrick Reed (+130)
It’s a tough group given Joaquin Niemann’s form and Bubba Watson’s course history. Reed, though, plays well at WGC events (two wins, nine top-10 finishes), and his match play history is well-documented.
Group 6: Jason Day (+230)
He’s got two wins and a third-place finish at the Match Play, and he’s right at home on Dye courses. He’s playing well, too. He’s gained an average of 5.7 strokes on the field in his last four stops.
Group 11: Cameron Smith (+230)
Another brutal group led by Rory McIlroy but also including match play ace Ian Poulter. But it’s Smith, who has been a wizard on and around the greens lately who wills his way to the bracket.
Group 14: Daniel Berger (+130)
He’s coming off an injury, but Berger still feels like the best choice.
ROUND OF 16
Na over Henley
Casey over Garcia
DeChambeau over Finau
Homa over Ancer
Spieth over Kuchar
Reed over Cantlay
Smith over Day
Rahm over Berger
QUARTERFINALS
Casey over Na
DeChambeau over Homa
Reed over Spieth
Rahm over Smith
SEMIFINALS
Casey (+1100 to reach finals) over DeChambeau
Reed (+1200 to reach finals) over Rahm
THIRD-PLACE MATCH
Rahm over DeChambeau
FINALS
Reed (+2900 to win) over Casey
