Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model
This week it’s a huge game in Big D as the Dallas Cowboys (6-2) look to bounce back from their worst loss this season, taking on the Atlanta Falcons (4-4), who are coming off their most significant win of the year.
Dallas will look to turn things around with their fifth-ranked offense as they take on the Falcons, surprisingly the 10th ranked defense. The Cowboys’ offense ranks top five in the league in points per game, passing yards per game, and rushing yards per game. All four times, Dallas has finished in the top five in all of these categories; since 1970, they have gone on to the Super Bowl. Dallas has not lost at home in consecutive weeks since weeks 11-12 of the 2017 season and is averaging 34.4 points per game at home this season which is the second-most in the NFL.
For the Cowboys, their impressive display of offense has come chiefly from Dak Prescott, who, when under pressure this season, has a passer rating of 112.3. He’ll be up against Atlanta’s defense who has a 21.4 percentage rate at putting pressure on the quarterback, which is the fourth worst in the NFL.
Atlanta has won three of their past four after starting the season 1-3, and they are one of three teams that have one or fewer losses on the road and one or fewer wins at home. Atlanta has played six straight one-possession games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL, and during those games, they have compiled a 4-2 record. Also, the Falcons have scored 25 or more points fives times this season and in four of their previous five games, while Dallas has allowed 25 or more points in two of their past three overall.
If you are looking for trends, there are a few that stand out for both sides. Atlanta is 9-25 against the spread in their past 34 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in the previous game and are 1-4 against the number in their previous five following a straight-up win.
The over is 4-0 in the past four head-to-heads between these two teams in Arlington and Dallas is 5-0 ATS in their past five against the NFC. This year, Dallas has been a covering machine, going 7-1 against the number in their previous eight overall. That being said, they are 0-4 in their past four overall ATS following a double-digit loss at home.
The Model likes a Dallas win, and so do we. If you are still alive in your survivor pool and have the Cowboys available, go ahead and jump on that horse. We agree with the Model that it is improbable America’s Team gets upset in back-to-back weeks as such heavy favorites.
