The point of this weekly exercise is simple: We’re trying to find value on early-week NFL lines that will likely change as the week goes on. The goal, of course, is to be on the right side of those moves and get the best number.
That’s how you profit in the NFL after all.
In Week 9, the process felt good. We jumped all over the UNDER in the Patriots-Panthers game at 43.5, and the game kicked off at 41.5 (under the key number of 42) in most places. The UNDER cashed. In the Titans-Rams game on Sunday night, we were admittedly square but jumped on Rams -6.5, expecting the public to hammer LA with the Derrick Henry news. That one closed at 7.5 (on the right side of the key number of 7), but the Titans shocked everyone and blew out the Rams. That happens sometimes.
That brings us to the third game, in which we tried to get cute with OVER 54 in the Packers-Chiefs game, expecting Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers to do battle with two mediocre defenses trying to stop them. Instead, Rodgers got COVID-19 and missed the game with the total plummeting to 48. They went waaaay UNDER that with a 13-7 game in which Jordan Love very much looked like someone making his first career start, and the Packers’ defense was incredibly impressive slowing down the KC offense. Whoops.
Anyway, we’re back at it with NFL Week 10, searching for the best early-week bets to place. Here are this week’s three, based on early-Monday morning lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44
The Lions, by just about every single offensive metric, have one of the three or four worst offenses in the NFL. After scoring 33 in Week 1 — thanks to a fluky 16-point fourth quarter — Detroit hasn’t scored more than 19 points in a game all season. The Lions are averaging 12 points over their last three games, all against halfway decent defenses in Cincinnati, the Rams and Philadelphia. Not even the bye week should help against a stingy Steelers defense. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has an offense of its own in the bottom third of the league. It’s hard to see the Steelers scoring more than 25, and there’s not really a path to more than, say, 17 for Detroit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 at Washington Football Team
We’re just trying to get inside the key number of 10 here. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks, and while Washington played Tom Brady and that offense tough in the playoffs, it’s a different story this season for WFT. The Washington defense has been especially brutal against the pass. Only Detroit has allowed more EPA per play through the air, and only the Jaguars have a worse defensive pass DVOA. Very much “for what it’s worth,” but Brady-led teams have won and covered coming out of the bye in the regular season in each of the last four years. To that same idea, Ron Rivera is just 3-7 ATS after a bye in his career.
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Another key number play here between two teams that are very hard to figure out. But the Broncos are the home team, and while the importance of home-field advantage in a spread has been reduced in recent years, playing in Denver can still be tricky with the altitude. Only three teams have covered at home more since 2019. So let’s just say the 2.5 is just for home-field, this line basically says these teams are equal on a neutral site. But that feels off, as there really isn’t anything the Eagles do markedly better than the Broncos. The advanced numbers say their running game is slightly better, but we just saw Denver run for 191 yards in Dallas on Sunday. Laying less than a field goal in what should be a rock fight feels more than OK here, but that number might not last.
Last week: 1-2
Total (through two weeks): 3-3
