Sharps vs. squares. It’s the biggest battle in the sports betting world, akin to the Hatfields and McCoys. The sharps are the professional bettors, while the squares are the Average Joes of the betting world. These two sides often don’t see eye-to-eye on the same game, creating an exciting dynamic in the betting market.
One of the easiest ways to track these “sharps vs. squares†matchups is by looking at the betting tickets vs. the betting dollars on each side of a given game. The sharps tend to place significantly larger bets, while the squares account for more betting tickets. When those numbers don’t align, there’s a good chance they disagree.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest “sharps vs. squares†showdowns in Week 11.
All lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7.0) – 50.0 total
The Bills are typically a public team, but the public is backing the Colts in this matchup. Perhaps they are not impressed with the Bills’ recent play, particularly their road loss to the Jaguars. They bounced back with a dismantling of the Jets last week, but beating the Jets hasn’t assuaged the public’s concerns.
Meanwhile, the Colts have won four of their past five games, with their only loss coming to the red-hot Titans. The sharps have believed in the Colts all season, but they are backing the Bills in this matchup. The Bills remain the top team in football per Football Outsiders DVOA, and they’re capable of dominating on both sides of the ball. The Colts are a much more one-dimensional team, and they’ve relied on Jonathan Taylor to deliver big performances of late. The Bills have one of the best rush defenses in the league, and if they can slow down Taylor, I doubt Carson Wentz can beat them with his arm. The Bills have received 64% of the dollars on just 45% of the bets, which is a good indicator of sharp activity.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – 42.5 total
The Saints are a bit of a mess at the moment. Jameis Winston is out for the rest of the year, and Alvin Kamara has been ruled out vs. the Eagles. Michael Thomas has already been ruled out for the rest of the season, and Taysom Hill is questionable. That doesn’t leave them with many reliable options on offense.
The Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season last week vs. the Broncos, and the sharps are backing them again this week. They’ve received just 36% of the spread bets, but they’ve resulted in 57% of the spread dollars.
Green Bay Packers (-1.0) @ Minnesota Vikings – 47.0 total
The Vikings are another team receiving sharp support this week. They’re another team the sharps have ridden for most of the season, with most of their advanced metrics suggesting that they’re better than their current record indicates. They actually fare better in terms of DVOA than the Packers, but the Packers are listed as road favorites. This current spread suggests that the Packers are roughly four points better than the Vikings on a neutral field, which feels a bit aggressive.
This line has already dropped from Packers -2.5 to Packers -1.0 thanks to some sharp money, and it wouldn’t be surprising if this line moves further in the Vikings’ favor.
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – 47.5 total
The sharps are looking into their crystal balls a bit for this one. Kyler Murray is considered a game-time decision vs. the Seahawks, and the Seahawks would provide a ton of value if he’s ultimately ruled out. They would likely become moderate favorites in this matchup, so the sharps are grabbing the value with the Seahawks while they can. If Murray is eventually ruled out, they can always hedge out of the bet later if they choose to do so.
Even if Murray is in, you could still make the case that the Seahawks are the right side. Russell Wilson has historically posted a 6-3 record against the spread as a home underdog, and he’s 27-14-4 against the spread following a loss.
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers (-3.0) – 43.0 total
The battle here is taking place over the total. The public is backing the over – 64% of the total bets are on that side – while most of the dollars have landed on the under. There has also been a steam move tracked on the under recently, which has ultimately pushed the total down by half a point. There could be some more activity before kickoff, so make sure to follow along.
